The PGA TOUR is hosting its seventh Signature Event of the season this week with the Memorial Tournament. Since this event’s inception in 1976, Muirfield Village Golf Club (par 72, 7,568 yards, bentgrass greens) in Dublin, Ohio, has hosted every edition of the Memorial. There will be 72 golfers competing this week for a $20 million purse and after the first two rounds, the top-50 and ties and any player within 10 shots of the lead will advance through the cut.
Below, I have featured some head-to-head tournament matchup bets to consider for the Memorial Tournament.
Tony Finau over Denny McCarthy (-110)
Both of these player’s last start came at Quail Hollow Club for the PGA Championship. McCarthy finished T-8 while Finau finished T-18, but McCarthy’s performance was all based on his putting, as he gained 5.6 strokes on the greens, but lost strokes on approach for the fifth start in a row, which is a telling sign that McCarthy’s game is not in optimal form and that he is due for some negative regression. Finau on the other hand gained a season-high 5.2 strokes on approach at Quail Hollow Club, which ranked ninth for the major. Being in compelling form as a ball-striker is much more important than being in strong form as a putter, especially at a challenging course like Muirfield Village. Among the last five winners at this par 72, four have finished the event top-12 in SG APP, while only two victors have finished the tournament inside the top-12 in SGP.
Naturally, as the much better overall ball-striker, Finau has been more successful than McCarthy at Muirfield Village. While McCarthy has two top-five finishes in five starts at this course, his average finish is 26th place at Muirfield Village, compared to Finau, who owns a 17th place average finish with five finishes of T-13 or better in his eight starts at Jack’s Place. Overall, Finau is gaining 1.4 strokes per round at Muirfield Village, compared to McCarthy at 1.0.
Finau is in a better position to succeed this week than McCarthy, and the former is a great pick to win this matchup.
Viktor Hovland over Ludvig Aberg (-110)
While Aberg finished T-5 at Muirfield Village last year, this is his only start at Jack’s Place. Hovland on the other hand is 5-for-5 in made cuts at Muirfield Village and after winning at this par 72 in 2023, he finished T-15 at Muirfield Village last season.
On top of knowing this venue better than Aberg, Hovland’s game is in a much better state than Aberg’s right now. Hovland has made five cuts in a row, with four of these finishes being top-30 results, including a win at the Valspar, whereas Aberg has missed three of his last six cuts and he has only finished inside the top-50 once during this span. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Hovland ranks 26th in total strokes gained, compared to Aberg, who ranks 43rd.
Hovland outperforming Aberg this week feels inevitable and Hovland must be backed for this matchup.
