The Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves facing elimination as the Thunder hold a 3-1 series lead, with the matchup returning to Oklahoma City tonight. Rudy Gobert and company had an impressive effort in the Game 4 loss, but the Thunder had an answer for everything thrown their way. Oklahoma City also has one of the better home courts in the league, with a 7-1 record in front of the home faithful thus far in the postseason.
Gobert has received plenty of playoff critiques throughout his career, and has had his ups and downs in this playoff run. The Frenchman is averaging 8.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game across his 28.0 minutes per game in this postseason. Across the opening four games of this series, he is averaging just 6.8 points and 7.0 rebounds per game across his 27.8 minutes of action. Minnesota will need a strong effort from Gobert and the rest of the team if they hope to keep their series alive.
Looking at the Game 5 odds, the Thunder enter as 8.5-point favorites with -340 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves hold +270 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 220.5 points.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Rudy Gobert prop bets for the fateful Game 5 matchup.
Best Rudy Gobert Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Rudy Gobert’s props are listed at over/under 7.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and 16.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Rudy Gobert Over 7.5 Points (+100)
While scoring will never be the first thing you think of when discussing Rudy Gobert as a basketball player, he is coming off a 13-point performance in the previous game and has tallied as many as 27 points in a game during this playoff run. His 7-foot-1 frame and activity around the rim provide a clear path to generating put back opportunities with his offensive rebounding. Gobert has tallied over 7.5 points in six of the past 10 games entering tonight, and in 55 of the 72 regular-season games he played.
The biggest factor that has worked in Gobert’s favor from a production standpoint has been the struggles of Julius Randle. The offseason trade acquisition is coming off his worst performance of the entire season, being limited to five points, seven rebounds, and three assists while shooting 1-for-7 from the field. Randle clocked just 28:09 of game action in the disappointing effort. Minnesota needs some sort of big man and rebounding threat on the floor, and Gobert will have the inside track to filling this amid Randle’s struggles. The high-quality defense from Oklahoma City has been a major factor in the series, but Gobert sees his scoring opportunities almost exclusively threw put-backs and lob opportunities, so this does not impact him as heavily from a scoring perspective.
Without much optimism that Randle will bounce back against this NBA-best defense, look for Gobert to continue serving as the primary big man for this Timberwolves team. Oklahoma City has also opted to go small at a more frequent rate, with Isaiah Hartenstein not starting the second half in back-to-back games. Gobert has his flaws as a basketball player, but he competes at a high rate and can more than hold up physically against Chet Holmgren. Gobert tallied seven offensive rebounds and 13 points in the previous game. I like his chances of replicating this type of effort and recording over 7.5 points for the seventh time in the past 11 games tonight.
Rudy Gobert Over 1.5 Steals & Blocks (-135)
With four Defensive Player of the Year Awards to his name, Rudy Gobert’s largest responsibility is for setting the tone on the defensive side of the ball. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a constant threat to attack the basket, with this being the foundation of the Thunder’s offense. Stopping these rim attacks is step one to slowing down the Thunder, and Gobert gives them a chance at setting this foundation. Minnesota does not have the depth or number of offensive creators to outscore this Thunder team, and will need to win a defensive battle if they are to extend their season.
Across the regular season, Gobert averaged 1.4 blocks and 0.8 steals per game. These numbers have dropped slightly to 1.2 blocks and 0.6 steals per game in the postseason. He has tallied one block in all four games in this series and three combined steals. Gobert also tallied two blocks in the lone regular-season game against Oklahoma City.
While Gobert has mostly held up his end of the bargain defensively, Minnesota has not done a good enough job funneling opponents into him defensively. When the Timberwolves’ defense is functioning at its peak, it involves chasing three-point shooters off the line and into Gobert’s path, where he cleans things up with his 7-foot-9 wingspan. If the Timberwolves play to their defensive peak, there is not a massive gap between them and the Thunder on this side of the ball. But they have not been able to fully reach this level in the series.
Count on desperation kicking in and for Minnesota to bring it defensively tonight. Gobert tallied 30 games with 2+ blocks in the regular season and 46 games with over 1.5 combined blocks and steals. Look for him to set the tone on the defensive side of the ball and do everything possible to give Minnesota a chance in this one.
