The Oklahoma City Thunder have leaped out to a convincing 3-1 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves and are just five wins away from being crowned NBA champions. The action will return to Oklahoma City tonight after the two teams split the pair of matchups played in Minnesota.
The most recent loss was not for lack of effort by the Timberwolves. They tallied more rebounds, assists, fastbreak points, second chance points, and free throw attempts while shooting a better percentage from the field, beyond the three-point arc, and at the free throw line. They still came up short. Minnesota gave their best punch and played really solid team basketball, but it was not enough. The Thunder now have a chance to deliver the knockout blow in front of their home crowd and give themselves plenty of rest before the NBA Finals.
Looking at the Game 5 odds, the Thunder are favored by 8.5 points and hold -340 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Minnesota holds +270 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 220.5.
With plenty on the line in Game 5, here are my favorite prop bets for this potentially fateful Western Conference Finals matchup.
Julius Randle Under 27.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-120)
After an outright awesome start to the NBA playoffs, the past postseason demons that Julius Randle battled have returned. The three-time All-Star clocked just 28:09 of game time in the previous game, his fewest of this playoff run, and was limited to five points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Randle also greatly struggled in Game 2, where he was limited to six points, five rebounds, and five assists.
The Oklahoma City Thunder defense has put its imprint on this series, with a clear focus on limiting Randle and Anthony Edwards. Randle has averaged 21.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists across this playoff run, but is producing just 15.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game in this series. Oklahoma City finished the regular season with the best defensive rating by a comfortable margin, and does not have a player in the rotation who is not at least a solid defender. Randle has looked increasingly bothered by this defensive pressure and has played less than 30 minutes in back-to-back games.
Expect these struggles to continue and for Randle to fail to make a significant impact with the home crowd backing the Thunder. There will be plenty of energy in the building tonight as Oklahoma City looks to punch its ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011-12. Randle is coming off what is likely his worst game of the entire season, and Oklahoma City’s dominant defense does not provide a clear path for him to get back on track. Expect the struggles to continue tonight and for Randle to be held to under 27.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists for the second straight game and third matchup of the series.
Jalen Williams Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-145)
One of the biggest question marks surrounding this Thunder team entering the playoffs was whether Jalen Williams was good enough to be the co-star that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs. The Santa Clara product had some struggles in last year’s playoffs but took a leap this season to earn All-NBA honors and has carried this into the postseason.
Across the regular season, the 24-year-old averaged 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. Williams shot 36.5% from beyond the three-point arc on a career-high 4.9 perimeter shots per game. This was a notable dropoff from the 42.7% rate he shot from deep last year. Across the postseason, he is averaging 20.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He is attempting 5.4 perimeter shots per game in the postseason, and is coming off a playoff career-high six made three-pointers in the previous game.
Williams is 11-for-22 from beyond the three-point arc in the series and has knocked down over 1.5 three-pointers in three straight games while seeing at least five attempts in each. He has tallied two or more made three-pointers in 10 of the 15 postseason games overall. Minnesota’s top priority is preventing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from attacking the rim on the interior, and this has made Williams’ shot opportunities much more available on the perimeter. Expect this to continue tonight and for the Thunder co-star to tally over 1.5 made three-pointers for the third straight game and the 11th time already in these playoffs.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+140)
It has been an up-and-down season for Donte DiVincenzo with the Timberwolves. After he found his full stride at the NBA level with the Knicks last season by proving to be a huge part of their postseason output, he was sent away as part of the package to add Karl-Anthony Towns. DiVincenzo has seen his minutes more limited this year in the new location, but the postseason scars that he already developed have proven valuable in this series. Across the playoffs overall, the Villanova product is averaging 8.9 points, 3.4 assists, and 2.9 rebounds while shooting just 31.0% from beyond the three-point arc on 6.0 long-range shots per game.
However, he has had a nice series against the Thunder and will be called on to build off this again tonight. DiVincenzo tallied 21 points in the previous game, shooting 5-for-8 from beyond the three-point arc. He has connected with at least two three-pointers in all four games, and has shot 12-for-28 (42.9%) from beyond the three-point arc overall. Minnesota is attempting 42.8 three-pointers as a team in this series, with the Thunder’s desire to prevent paint attacks notable. DiVincenzo has been among the biggest beneficiaries of this and does not need much space to be willing to fire.
With the series on the line, expect DiVincenzo to be ready to leave it all on the floor and continue benefiting from so much attention being spent on Anthony Edwards. The scrappy guard is averaging 7.0 three-point attempts per game and has a strong enough track record as a shooter to believe in him again tonight. Look for DiVincenzo to continue having a notable role in Minnesota’s offensive attack and record over 2.5 made three-pointers for the third time in this series.
