After falling into a treacherous 2-0 series hole, the Minnesota Timberwolves punched back with a convincing 143-101 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. The series will remain in Minnesota tonight, with the Timberwolves needing to play with the same level of desperation to even up the series. All three games in this series have essentially been blowouts, with 15 points being the smallest margin of victory.
Teams have only been able to come back from a 3-1 series deficit 13 times across the 294 occasions this has occurred in playoff history, so there is plenty on the line tonight. With this 4.4% rate in mind, the outcome of this Game 3 matchup could end up being very telling for the outcome of the series.
There are plenty of opportunities to get involved in the action this evening. One of the unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Basketball!
This article will look at my top Pick6 plays on Monday, May 26. You simply choose whether each statistic will be more or less than the set number. With the stage set, here are my favorite picks for the Game 4 matchup between the Thunder and Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards More Than 27.5 Points
After an underwhelming start to the series with just 13 shot attempts in Game 1, Anthony Edwards woke up and has played in attack mode the way the Timberwolves need. He has produced scoring outputs of 32 and 30 in Games 2 and 3, launching 26 shot attempts in the second game. The Timberwolves will only go as far as Edwards can take them, and their star has welcomed this challenge.
Across the regular season, Edwards averaged 27.6 points per game and tallied more than 27.5 points in 39 games. He has tallied 26.5 points per game in the postseason and recorded more than 27.5 points in six of the 13 games, including four of his past six. The former No. 1 overall pick has played in attack mode and has taken on multiple Thunder defenders for stretches. Minnesota is still a bit limited in its offensive options in comparison to this Thunder team, so expect this method of approach to continue.
Count on Edwards continuing to see as many shot opportunities as he sees fit in this Game 4 matchup. Minnesota has played its star more off-ball to prevent Oklahoma City from being able to double him, which has been beneficial. He is averaging 20.5 field-goal attempts per game this postseason and will have a clear line to reaching this scoring output with this much opportunity. Edwards sets the tone for the Timberwolves, and they will need the same level of desperation tonight. I like his chances of recording his third straight game with 30+ points and tallying more than 27.5 points tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander More Than 1.5 Made Three-Pointers
On the other side of this star guard matchup, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off one of his worst playoff performances. The MVP was limited to 14 points and turned the ball over four times while shooting 4-for-13 from the field in the Game 3 loss. This snapped a five-game postseason streak with 30+ points scored, so he will be looking to bounce back in Game 4.
Gilgeous-Alexander is at his best when attacking the basket or operating in the midrange, but it takes his three-point shot to open this up. Across the regular season, he took a career-high 5.7 three-point attempts per game and connected at a 37.5% rate. This comes out to an average of 2.1 perimeter shots per game, and he connected on more than 1.5 three-pointers in 48 of the 76 games. His three-point percentage has sunk to 29.0% in the postseason, and he is attempting 4.9 long-range shots per game. Even with the struggles, SGA has tallied more than 1.5 made three-pointers in six of the 14 postseason games.
This includes the previous game in which he struggled, with Gilgeous-Alexander shooting 2-for-5 from the perimeter. The Thunder star’s ability to get to the free-throw line has been a source of frustration and led Minnesota to concede perimeter shots to help prevent this. Expect this to continue tonight and for Gilgeous-Alexander to be willing to take what the defense gives him. He is a better shooter than the numbers have shown thus far, and he has still cleared this total in three of his past five games. Look for him to build off this tonight and connect on a pair of three-pointers for the second straight game in the series.
Naz Reid More Than 11.5 Points
After a tough start to the series, Naz Reid looked more like himself in Game 3. He played just 19 minutes due to the blowout and Reid picking up four fouls, but he added 10 points and eight rebounds and shot 2-for-3 from beyond the three-point arc. This was a welcome sight after going 0-for-12 in the first two games in Oklahoma City from beyond the three-point line.
The former Sixth Man of the Year shot the ball better at home all season, connecting on 41% of his perimeter shots at Target Center compared to 34.5% on the road. Reid averaged 14.2 points per game in the regular season, with this dropping to 10.3 in the postseason. He deserves credit for battling through the shooting struggles and attacking the rim at a greater rate. Reid has scraped his way to 10 points in each of the past two games despite the shooting struggles, shooting 8-for-25 from the floor in the series overall.
Heading into Game 4, expect Reid’s role to be expanded and for Minnesota to have a greater need for his scoring pop. He tallied more than 11.5 points in 51 of the 80 regular-season games, including all four games against the Thunder. The 25-year-old is mentally strong and feeds off the energy of the Minnesota crowd. A lot has gone wrong for Reid in this series already, with his shooting struggles and foul issues at the top of the list. Look for him to finally get back on track and tally more than 11.5 points for the first time in this series and provide a spark in the way that has come to be expected from him.
Jalen Williams Less Than 20.5 Points
While SGA’s MVP ascension rightfully takes the headlines, the leap by Jalen Williams is arguably more important to the Thunder’s trajectory as a team. The Santa Clara product qualified for the All-NBA Third team after averaging 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists in the regular season. He struggled in the postseason last year, but he has held up his end of the bargain better this season. Even still, Williams’ scoring output has dropped to 19.6 points per game in the playoffs and 18.1 points per game since the opening round sweep of the Grizzlies.
Minnesota has a strong overall defense, finishing the regular season ranked fifth in opponent points per game allowed and sixth in defensive rating. Across the seven matchups with the Timberwolves in the regular season and playoffs, Williams is averaging 19.6 points per game and has been held to less than 20.5 points in five of these seven matchups. He dropped 26 points in Game 2 but has been held to less than this number in the other two games in this series.
The Timberwolves have mixed up their coverages with Anthony Edwards matching up with Williams for a team-high 10 game minutes. He has been held to 1-for-5 shooting from the field in these matchups and is also averaging just 18.3 points per game on the road this postseason. Minnesota will be looking to set the defensive tone again tonight. Expect Williams to struggle with this once again and be held to less than 20.5 points for the third time in this series and sixth time this season.
Julius Randle More Than 4.5 Assists
Few players are changing the perception of themselves more than Julius Randle in this playoff run. With the past playoff struggles still heavy on the minds of plenty, Randle is amid his best playoff stretch by a comfortable margin. The three-time All-Star is averaging 22.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists thus far in the postseason. This comes after a regular season in which he averaged 18.7 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game during his first year in Minnesota.
The Timberwolves took a big swing trading for Randle this offseason. Anthony Edwards continues to attract double teams at a high rate, and pairing him with a player who can create his own shot is a crucial counter to this. While Karl-Anthony Towns is an incredible offensive talent in his own right, this creation ability is somewhere that Randle has an edge. This has been further pushed to the forefront with Minnesota opting to play Edwards more off-ball, which has also opened up more playmaking opportunities for Randle. He is capable of serving as a playmaking hub in the halfcourt and has taken this role for stretches all across this postseason.
Randle has tallied more than 4.5 assists in seven of his 13 games thus far in the playoffs. This includes one triple-double and 10+ assists twice. He has cleared this number in one of the three games in this series. Expect Minnesota to continue playing Edwards off-ball and for Randle to have plenty of opportunities as a lead decision-maker. Look for him to continue stuffing the stat sheet and tally more than 4.5 assists tonight.
Isaiah Hartenstein Less Than 7.5 Points
The Oklahoma City Thunder added Isaiah Hartenstein in the offseason with the expectation that he could be a playoff difference-maker. He has been a seamless fit on the roster, but this series is a tough matchup for him. Across the regular season, Hartenstein averaged 11.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game in 27.9 minutes per night. His minutes have dropped to 25.0 per game in the playoffs, with Hartenstein averaging 9.8 points and 8.2 rebounds in this stretch.
This has especially been put on display in this series. Hartenstein has played below 20 minutes in two of the three games in this series and is coming off back-to-back games with six points. While the blowout was a factor in this, Hartenstein played just five minutes in the second half of Game 3 and did not start the period with the Thunder opting to go small. Players like Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and even Isaiah Joe provide more positional versatility, which makes some sense as this team chases Anthony Edwards around screens.
Hartenstein’s importance was proven across the seven-game series with Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, but this simply may not be the series for him. Rudy Gobert is a high-level rim protector who limits some of Hartenstein’s impact as a lob threat and deters some of his signature push shot attempts. Expect his minutes to continue being limited and for most of his impact to fail to show up in the box score tonight. Count on him being held to less than 7.5 points for the third straight game as Oklahoma City continues to attack with more of its small-ball lineups.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
