The final day of the Premier League season kicks off on Sunday. While the champions have already been crowned, there is so much at stake when it comes to qualifying for the Champions League spaces.
This is a breakdown of which teams can still qualify for the Champions League and which results are needed for each team. Premier League fans can make bets every matchweek at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Champions League Qualification
Liverpool has already secured the Premier League title for the 2024-25 season, but there is so much to play for on the final day. The Premier League is guaranteed five teams in the Champions League for the 2025-26 campaign, but after Tottenham won the Europa League, the Premier League will actually end up with six teams in the Champions League next season. Tottenham is guaranteed a spot in the tournament as Europa League champions despite finishing so far down the Premier League table. Liverpool and second-place Arsenal have also guaranteed their spots in next year’s Champions League field as well. It is down to five teams vying for the final three spots on the last day of the season.
Here is a look at the standings for spots three through seven entering the final day:
3. Manchester City (68 points, +26 GD)
4. Newcastle (66 points, +22 GD)
5. Chelsea (66 points, +20 GD)
6. Aston Villa (66 points, +9 GD)
7. Nottingham Forest (65 points, +12 GD)
The teams that finish in spots three through five will qualify for the Champions League, while the teams in sixth and seventh will likely be bound for the Europa League instead. If teams finish with the same amount of points, it will come down to goal differential as the tiebreaker in the standings.
Here are the matches that these five teams are involved in and which results are needed for each team to qualify for a top-five spot.
Manchester City at Fulham
Manchester City is in the most comfortable situation of all of these teams. All they need is a draw against 10th-place Fulham to guarantee a spot in the Champions League. Even if they lose, Newcastle, Chelsea and Aston Villa would all need to win for City to get pushed out. That is why they are currently -5000 to finish in the top five at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Newcastle vs. Everton
Newcastle also controls its own fate, facing 13th-place Everton at home on the final day. If Newcastle wins, they are guaranteed a spot in the Champions League. If they draw, they would either need Aston Villa to lose, or for there to be a draw in the Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest match. If they lose, they would also need Aston Villa to lose to still qualify. The task is simple: win and you’re in. That is why Newcastle is -500 to finish in the top five.
Chelsea at Nottingham Forest
This is the most important match of the day. Two of the teams vying for these final spots face each other in Nottingham. Just like Newcastle, Chelsea controls their own fate. If they win this match, they are in the Champions League next year. However, if they draw, they would need Newcastle to lose or Aston Villa to drop points. If they lose the match, they are likely out unless Newcastle loses by four or more goals. So, Chelsea controls their own destiny, and even with a draw, they have a reasonable chance as well as they would just need Villa to drop points. They are -170 to finish in the top five.
On the Nottingham Forest side, they need a win and some help. A draw or a loss would give Forest no chance to finish in the top five. If they win, they need either Villa or Newcastle to drop points. A draw or a loss from one of those sides combined with a Forest win would see Nottingham Forest propel into the top five and qualify for the Champions League. They have the longest odds of all five of these teams at +350 to finish in the top five.
Aston Villa at Manchester United
Aston Villa takes on a Manchester United team in total disarray after losing the Europa League final earlier this week. If Aston Villa loses, they have no chance of qualifying for the Champions League. If they draw, they would need Newcastle to lose to get in the top five. If they win, they need Manchester City to lose, Chelsea to drop points, or Newcastle to drop points. They are currently +120 to qualify for the Champions League.
Predictions
I expect Manchester City and Newcastle to both take care of business and get wins in their respective matches. They both have too much quality in a win-and-in scenario to lose against lower-quality opponents. That would lock up two of the three spots.
If those results happen, Chelsea would be in the driver’s seat. Nottingham Forest has been in poor form down the stretch, but they have managed to squeak out results all season. At home, they will have an incredible atmosphere with the supporters urging them on. Chelsea has ended the season well, but they have also been inconsistent all season. I am predicting a draw between those two teams, knocking Forest out of contention.
If all of those results happen, Aston Villa would just need to win to get into the top five. Manchester United is in a terrible spot mentally and Villa should be able to knock them off. So, I am betting on Manchester City, Newcastle and Aston Villa to get the three available spots, with Chelsea and Forest drawing to knock each other out of contention.
Best Bet: Aston Villa to Finish Top 5 (+120)
