Memorial Day is coming up, which feels like the unofficial start of summer. With that date on the horizon, the MLB is ramping up its slate, and for once, there’s a normal nine-game offering on this Thursday. At DraftKings, we’ve split it up into a four-game early slate and a five-game late slate, each with a $100,000 prize pool. Here are my favorite value options from the late slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st].
SP Mike Burrows, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $6,200
This game is likely to be fairly devoid of offense; since the start of May, Pittsburgh has posted the league’s worst OPS, and the Brewers have had the second-most inept offense. On a season-long basis, the Pirates are last in OPS and Milwaukee is fourth-to-last. That makes Burrows, Pittsburgh’s 15th-ranked prospect, a strong value proposition on an otherwise weak slate. The only other cheap DFS pitchers are known commodities, and not for a good reason — all three of Lance McCullers Jr. ($6,500), Trevor Williams ($6,300), and Cade Povich ($6,000) have worse than 5.5 ERA’s. I’d rather take my chances on a talented prospect who pitched 3.1 innings of one-run ball and picked up a win in his one relief appearance in 2024. In seven starts for Triple-A Indianapolis this season, Burrows sports a 2.51 ERA and has a 3.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio, demonstrating improved control after he walked three batters and struck out two in his MLB debut. He might be nervous in his first MLB start, but at least we don’t know whether he’ll be bad.
SS J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, $3,600
In the section about Burrows, I noted McCullers’ struggles, and if I’m going to fade a pitcher who’s performed poorly to start the season, I’d rather take one likely in the tail half of his career than a young prospect who could reasonably improve. The 31-year-old McCullers had missed each of the past two years due to various injuries and had arguably the single worst start by any pitcher this season, when he got just one out and gave up seven earned runs on three hits and three walks (-17.5 FPTS) in a 13-9 defeat to the Cincinnati Reds on May 10. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in either of his other two starts, but he lasted fewer than four innings in each of them and his velocity is down across the board from 2022.
He also is throwing 54% of his pitches outside the strike zone, a two-percentage-point uptick from 2022, but unlike that season, when he had an above-average whiff rate and a near-average chase rate, McCullers has barely gotten any hitters to either chase or whiff. That’s unlikely to change against Crawford, who ranks in the 96th percentile in walk rate this season, the 84th percentile in chase percentage, and the 79th percentile in whiff percentage. Crawford might not be the best player to take advantage of McCullers’ tendency to give up pulled fly balls, given his 33rd percentile bat speed, but he should be a near-guarantee to get on base from the leadoff spot, allowing Julio Rodríguez ($5,000) to drive him in.
OF Alex Verdugo, Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, $3,800
Frankly, nobody on the Braves has particularly taken advantage of Ronald Acuña Jr. ($5,500)‘s absence as the 2023 MVP continues to recover from the torn ACL that ended his 2024 season early. But at least the journeyman Verdugo, signed during the offseason after a disappointing season with the New York Yankees, has demonstrated some strengths at the plate. This season, he ranks in the top five percentiles in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate, and though he hasn’t swung the bat quickly this season or hit a home run, his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage are both better than the median. His expected slugging and expected wOBA figures are both better than what he’s actually posted, indicating that he’s gotten unlucky, and luck can change at any moment.
He might not need to get lucky against Williams, who has given up three or more earned runs in each of his last four starts and has posted a negative WAR figure in four of his 10 MLB seasons. Sure, the veteran has probably gotten unlucky this season — his 3.76 FIP is far better than his 5.91 ERA, and he’s allowing a .358 batting average on balls in play — but luck only goes so far for a pitcher who loves to throw his fastball despite throwing it at a first-percentile velocity with below-average movement. He does excel at avoiding walks, but he’s prone to giving up the occasional hard hit and doesn’t induce many chases or whiffs.
