Middle of match week 10 in fantasy baseball, and we must pour one out for Jared Jones as we turn our eyes to the sportsbooks. You always hate to see a prospect go down with a TJ surgery so comprehensive it’ll require nearly two years of convalescence. I digress. I’ve already written predictions and picks for the Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks, Athletics vs. Angels, and Yankees vs. Rangers games tonight. I’ll have a few more by the end of the day. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks o9.5 runs (-120)
The total for this game is set at 9.5 tonight, and with both offenses capable of explosive bursts, combined with shaky bullpens (5.59 bullpen ERA last seven days for LA), the over feels like the logical play. The Dodgers’ bullpen, prior to last night, had a 4.81 bullpen ERA. It’s been quietly rough for them to keep opponents off the board late in games.
That plays just fine into the Diamondbacks’ approach. We know Arizona can hang with the best. The Dodgers are the best. But the D-Backs have a .256 team batting average and 67 home runs (seventh in MLB), and they are no strangers to power when their lineup is clicking.
If I had more faith in Dustin May’s ability to string together good starts, I might go under, here. But I can’t figure him out, and it seems like MLB hitters have: 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He’s allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts (5.1 IP per start over last three starts).
Arizona has hit the over in 57% of their away games, and the Dodgers have surpassed the total in 58% of their home games.
Yankees vs. Rangers u7.5 runs (-105)
Jacob deGrom, with a dominant 2.29 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, is in full ace mode, allowing just a .179 BA to Yankees batters. Yarbrough, though a fill-in, has a 3.70 ERA and keeps hitters off balance. The Rangers have averaged only 3.46 runs per game (26th), struggling to convert opportunities.
Even with Aaron Judge’s MVP form, the Yankees have hit the under in five of their last six games. The Rangers rank 20th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers, likely stalling against Yarbrough. Given deGrom’s dominance and both offenses cooling, the under looks poised to stay competitive for nine full innings.
Athletics vs. Angels o10.5 runs (-120)
Jack Kochanowicz (4.71 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) has struggled with control, allowing multiple runs in six of his last nine starts. He’s not missing bats, which could give the A’s, despite their recent slump, an opportunity to break out offensively. They’ve posted 12 hits in their last game, a 7-5 loss to the Angels, showing they can generate offense even when struggling. On the other side, JP Sears has been effective (3.31 ERA), but his team has allowed 5+ runs in four of the last five games. \
The who-expected-this Angels, with a top-10 wOBA and slugging percentage over the last week, are on a hot streak, averaging 6.4 runs per game over their last five. With both teams showing vulnerabilities on the mound balanced by solid offensive output, the over feels like the right play here.
