The Arizona Diamondbacks are entering this NL West showdown against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a growing shape of midseason form. They’ve won four of their last six games, including a hard-fought 1-0 win over Colorado, where the offense did just enough to support stellar pitching. In contrast, the Dodgers have stumbled into this game after being swept by the Angels, with pitching issues front and center. A tale of two weekends in the NL West, and now a fantastic series to kick off the week. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Arizona’s pitching staff has been shaky at times. Particularly Brandon Pfaadt, who will take the mound tonight. His 3.73 ERA on the season may look decent, but his 5.66 xERA suggests regression could be looming. He’s struggled against the Dodgers in the past, posting a 4.73 ERA over five career starts against them.
Landon Knack, the Dodgers’ projected starter, has a 5.89 ERA and has been hit hard, particularly with his fastball. He’s allowing an alarmingly high 47% hard-hit rate and a .281 expected batting average. This is a recipe for disaster against an Arizona lineup that’s been on fire, ranking third in OPS and fifth in runs scored. The Diamondbacks’ ability to generate power—led by players like Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez—makes them dangerous on any given night, especially against a pitcher who hasn’t found his groove.
One glaring issue for the Dodgers is their bullpen, which has been taxed heavily and is struggling with depth due to numerous injuries. The Diamondbacks could exploit this, especially late in the game, with a powerful and balanced offense. Arizona has been excellent in the first inning, and they’re more than capable of jumping on Knack early. In fact, the Diamondbacks have been one of the top teams in baseball for first-inning runs, a crucial factor in this matchup.
The Dodgers are still the favorites, thanks to their elite offense and strong history at home, but they’ve shown enough bend and break that we’ll stay away from a side, tonight. Despite Shohei Ohtani’s dominance (leading the team with 16 home runs), and Freddie Freeman’s hot bat (.371 avg, 34 RBIs), their pitching staff has been inconsistent. Knack’s struggles and the bullpen’s fatigue open the door for Arizona to take advantage in a way that’ll direct our eyes to the total.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The betting trends favor a high-scoring affair. The total has gone over in 10 of the Dodgers’ last 11 home games, and with both pitchers struggling, it’s easy to see why. Pfaadt’s tendency to allow hard contact coupled with Knack’s issues against a deep lineup points to runs pouring in. On the other hand, Arizona’s recent form has been strong, and with their potent offense, they’ve got a good shot at winning outright, especially with Knack’s inconsistency.
Take the over 9.5 here. The offense from both teams is too strong, and the pitching mismatches are set to produce a double-digit pile-up of runs on the LA freeway.
Best bet: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks o9.5 total runs
Fireworks in La tonight—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
