The stage is set for the NBA Conference Finals, with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder set to battle it out for the right to represent the West. Julius Randle has been one of the biggest winners of the postseason thus far, rewriting the narratives on some of his previous playoff shortcomings. Across the opening 10 postseason games, Randle is averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists and has proven instrumental to the Timberwolves’ success.
Minnesota will need this to continue heading into this matchup against the Conference favorites. The Timberwolves are back in the Conference Finals for the second consecutive season after falling short to the Dallas Mavericks last season, with the hopes that Randle can help them progress past this point.
Looking at this Game 1 matchup, the Thunder enter as 7.5-point favorites with -305 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves hold +245 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 215.5 points.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Julius Randle prop bets for the series opener.
Best Julius Randle Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Julius Randle’s props are listed at over/under 19.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers and 32.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Julius Randle Over 4.5 Assists (-160)
It was a surprising decision by the Minnesota Timberwolves to trade away Karl-Anthony Towns in a deal that brought back Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo shortly before the season. But two rounds into the playoffs, Timberwolves President Tim Connelly has earned the right to a victory lap in what is aging as one of the biggest win-win trades in NBA history.
It will be interesting to see the route the Oklahoma City Thunder go in defending Anthony Edwards in the Game 1 feel-out matchup. But Edwards has faced double-teams at a high rate to force the ball out of his hands, and expect this to occur in this series as well. Randle’s ability as a secondary creator and serving as a playmaker in the halfcourt has been necessary to further unlock Minnesota’s offense. Randle has always been a really solid passer, and this has been called upon at a greater rate in the postseason.
Across the 69 regular-season games Randle logged, he averaged 4.7 assists per game and tallied at least five assists in 31 matchups. His assist average has increased to 5.9 in the postseason, and he has tallied over 4.5 assists in six of the 10 games. Randle also tallied six assists in his lone regular-season matchup with the Thunder. Oklahoma City has a strong overall defense and will mix up its coverages throughout. But expect slowing down Anthony Edwards to be at the top of the priority list and for Minnesota to benefit from having him off-ball with Randle scaling up his role as primary decision maker. The 30-year-old is more than capable of recording over 4.5 assists and look for him to reach this figure for the seventh time in this playoff run.
Julius Randle Under 19.5 Points (-105)
The Oklahoma City Thunder finished the regular season ranked third in opponents’ points per game, first in opponents’ field goal percentage, and first in defensive rating. This has carried into the postseason as they rank first among all 16 playoff teams in defensive rating, first in opponents field goal percentage, and are fourth in opponents points allowed. They are coming off a Game 7 victory in which they put on a clinic in how to defend Nikola Jokic. The Thunder limited the three-time MVP to 20 points, and Jokic logged the second-lowest usage rate of his 94-game playoff career. The youthful team took a swing by adding Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason, giving more frontcourt options with him capable of playing next to Chet Holmgren.
Expect this to be bothersome to Randle in the opening game, with points set to be difficult to come by across the board. The three-time All-Star averaged 18.7 points per game in the regular season and was held to under 19.5 points in 33 games. This includes the regular season clash with Oklahoma City in which Randle finished with 11 points. Randle has cleared this number in eight of the 10 playoff games thus far, but expect things to be a bit more difficult against this Thunder defense, in contrast to the interior struggles that the Lakers and Warriors each possessed.
Don’t write off Randle as a scorer in the series overall, but expect points to be difficult to come by in this opening matchup. Expect this to serve as a bit of a wake-up call with much more physicality and high-level defenders than he has seen thus far. Count on the interior duo of Hartenstein and Holmgren to get the better of Randle in the series opener and be held to under 19.5 points in Game 1.
