From 30, four teams remain, vying to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The champion will be the seventh consecutive new winner, an unprecedented run of parity in the league’s history.
But which of the four will break its drought? Two of the remaining teams — the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves — have never won a title before. The Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t won since they played in Seattle and were known as the SuperSonics, last lifting the trophy in 1979. The New York Knicks’ title drought is even longer; they last delivered jubilance to the Big Apple in 1973.
Unsurprisingly, Oklahoma City is a -145 favorite to win it all at DraftKings Sportsbook on the heels of its 68-14 regular season. But the Thunder are vincible; with some better shooting from the Denver Nuggets’ role players late in Games 4 and 5, Oklahoma City would likely be out. The Thunder are followed by the Knicks (+450), Timberwolves (+550), and Pacers (+600). I’ll break down all four teams in order of how I’d value their futures.
1. Indiana Pacers (+600)
The Pacers are +125 underdogs to advance past New York, which seems to me like excellent value, even though the Knicks won the regular-season series. Indiana has looked utterly dominant so far these playoffs, cruising past a decent Milwaukee Bucks team buoyed by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s brilliance and Gary Trent’s hot shooting in five. Then, while the Cleveland Cavaliers had bad shooting and injury luck, the Pacers were simply the better team in dispatching the Cavaliers in five games. Tyrese Haliburton might just be the only man who can stare Jalen Brunson in the face in the clutch, leading two seven-point comebacks with less than a minute to play in the span of three games.
Indiana’s defense is legitimate. During the second round, it held Cleveland to just 61.9% accuracy from the restricted area, the second-lowest of any team, as well as the lowest percentages from the midrange and from above the break. Just 18.1% of the Cavaliers’ shots came with the nearest defender more than six feet away — the lowest of any team. Andrew Nembhard held Donovan Mitchell to just 10-for-43 shooting from the field and a three-for-18 mark from downtown on 173.1 possessions, and Brunson shot just three-for-eight against him during the regular season. Myles Turner was effective against Jarrett Allen last series and could present Karl-Anthony Towns with a challenge.
After January 1, the Pacers ranked seventh in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating, categories in which they rank second and eighth, respectively, so far these playoffs. They’re played like championship contenders for the last five months and can absolutely do so for another five weeks.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (+550)
Minnesota ended the regular season hot, winning 17 of its last 21 games with the league’s fourth-best net rating across that span, and it carried that form into the playoffs. The Timberwolves ousted LeBron James, Luka Dončić, and the Los Angeles Lakers with ease in the first round, triumphing in five despite shooting just seven-for-47 (14.9%) in the closeout game. Then, they sent home the Golden State Warriors in a fairly comfortable five games, although they were aided by Golden State losing Stephen Curry to a hamstring strain in Game 1. Minnesota can win in diverse ways, offering a defensively dominant traditional big in Rudy Gobert, an ultra-confident three-level scorer in Anthony Edwards who doubles as a strong perimeter defender, and a jumbo playmaker in Julius Randle.
They have a tougher road to the Finals than either of the teams in the East, given Oklahoma City’s dominance, but I don’t think it’s completely inconceivable that they could beat the Thunder. After all, the two teams split the season series, with three of the four games being decided by less than seven points, and Gobert and Randle both sat out three of them. Between Gobert, Randle, and Naz Reid, the Timberwolves have enough size and power on the boards to take advantage of Oklahoma City’s most exploitable weakness, and in Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, they can also challenge the Thunder’s role players on the perimeter. Especially if Donte DiVincenzo starts hitting his shots, expect this series to go deep.
3. New York Knicks (+450)
Not all is lost for New York. OG Anunoby is the ideal defender to take Pascal Siakam out of the game after limiting him to five-for-14 shooting (including one-for-eight from deep) during the regular season and being pretty effective against him on the other end. Mikal Bridges held Haliburton to just one-for-six shooting from deep during the 92.9 possessions that he guarded him for during the regular season. Josh Hart is a do-it-all glue guy and Miles McBride has been a fairly reliable option so far these playoffs, making 39.5% of his three-pointers. Mitchell Robinson, despite his free-throw shooting woes, has provided valuable minutes off the bench, especially as a rim protector, posting the team’s best plus-minus in both Games 1 and 2 of the series against the Boston Celtics.
Madison Square Garden will surely be rocking the entire series as the Knicks seek to exact revenge for the 2000 Eastern Conference Finals, where Indiana ousted them in six games. After struggling with defense for much of the second half of the season, New York has had the fifth-best defense so far these playoffs, ahead of the Pacers. The Knicks hustle: they rank fourth so far these playoffs in contested threes, third in deflections, and first in drawn charges, which could present a challenge for Indiana’s motion-heavy offense. Plus, they’ve played 36 minutes of clutch time so far these playoffs and conceded just 88 points per 100 possessions in that time, and Brunson and Towns rank first and fourth, respectively, in clutch points.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (-145)
Oklahoma City absolutely deserves to be the title favorite, but holding -145 odds headed into the conference finals is too aggressive, given that in several other conceivable universes, the Thunder would already be at home. Non-Nikola Jokić Nuggets combined to shoot just one-for-20 from beyond the arc in the fourth quarters of Games 4 and 5, which Oklahoma City won by a combined 12 points. 19 of Denver’s 24 three-point attempts in those quarters came with the nearest defender more than four feet away; the Nuggets missed every single one of them. The Thunder can’t expect to get that lucky two rounds in a row, even though Minnesota as a whole hasn’t shot the ball particularly well these playoffs.
Oklahoma City’s talent does dwarf all others, which is why it is the odds-on favorite. Jalen Williams had an up-and-down second round, but provided a 24-point performance in the Game 7 blowout and might be more mentally free now that he’s proven himself more in the postseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will rightfully win MVP and produced five stellar games out of the seven in the conference semifinals. Chet Holmgren, too, is one of just four players averaging at least 1.5 made three-pointers and 1.5 blocks per game these playoffs, and Alex Caruso is a veteran leader with significant playoff experience. Of the 34 players who have guarded at least five three-point attempts per game so far, Luguentz Dort has held shooters to the third-lowest percentage.
