As a part of the MLB Rivalry weekend, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies face off to be declared the superior Pennsylvania team. There is not too much room for debate this season with the Phillies entering with a 26-18 record on the season while the Pirates sit at 15-30 on the year. Philadelphia also holds a 1-0 series advantage after winning last night’s 8-4 victory.
The Phillies enter the second matchup of the series as -325 favorites while the Pirates hold +260 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under for the matchup is set at 9.
Pirates vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Zack Wheeler will be on the mound for the Phillies and continues to add to his resume as one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. He enters with a 4-1 record and a 2.95 ERA on the season, having struck out 74 batters in his 58.0 innings pitched. Wheeler has pitched 7.0 innings in back-to-back starts entering this game, not allowing any runs in the previous matchup against the Guardians.
Pittsburgh will be starting Carmen Mlodzinski, who has a much less proven track record. He had pitched just 82.2 innings before this season and will be making his ninth start of the year. Mlodzinski is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA. He is coming off his best start of the season after going 5.2 scoreless innings against the Braves, which marks his longest outing and the lone time he has finished a game without allowing a run so far this season.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks 10th in total runs, eighth in hits, fifth in walks, 21st in strikeouts, and 17th in home runs on the season. Kyle Schwarber is tied for second in the MLB in home runs with 15 while adding 34 RBIs and slashing .263/.398/.575. Bryce Harper also continues to produce with seven home runs, 25 RBIs, and .258/.369/.430 hitting splits. Trea Turner has raised his batting average to .302 while Nick Castellanos leads the team in doubles with 11, which is tied for 14th in the MLB.
Pittsburgh ranks 26th in hits, 29th in runs, 29th in home runs, ninth in walks, and seventh in total strikeouts. Oneil Cruz has battled some injury issues but made an appearance as a pinch hitter last night. He leads the Pirates with eight home runs and is tied for second in the MLB with 16 stolen bases while slashing .237/.366/.458. Bryan Reynolds has struggled overall but leads the team with 20 RBIs despite slashing .194/.259/.309. The Pirates already fired their manager following their disappointing start and are still attempting to fully find their footing on the season.
Pirates vs. Phillies pick, best bet
The Phillies have won 10 of their last 14 games and are playing some really good baseball. While the Pirates have shown some increased fight following the managerial shakeup, the results have not quite shown just yet.
Zack Wheeler provides a high floor for the Phillies’ chances to win, and the bats have come to life for Philadelphia in recent games. After a bit of a cold stretch, they have put up 15 combined runs over the past two games, including tagging Pittsburgh’s bullpen for all eight of their runs last night.
Philadelphia is a -325 favorite for a reason and can be counted on to take care of business tonight. The Pirates have only put up five runs three times this season. They are producing 3.09 runs per game, which ranks dead last in the MLB, and Wheeler will not be any help in overcoming this. Expect Wheeler and the Phillies’ bullpen to keep the Pirates’ offense under wraps. Philadelphia are a threat to put up a crooked number in any given inning. Expect them to have success in this matchup.
Best bet: Phillies -1.5 (-155) vs. Pirates
Bonus: I am backing Zack Wheeler to strike out over 7.5 batters at -125 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Wheeler has struck out over 7.5 in six of his nine starts and in back-to-back games entering tonight. Pittsburgh has struggled to put the bat on the ball all year, with Reynolds leading the team with 55 strikeouts and Cruz adding 48 of his own. The Pirates are averaging 8.64 strikeouts per game and Wheeler will be among the best pitchers they have faced this season. Expect the Phillies’ ace to pitch deep into this game and be in attack mode right from the opening inning.
