In the series opener between these two teams, the Yankees notched a four-run third inning then cruised to the 6-1 victory.
For Saturday’s game, Clarke Schmidt takes the hill for the Yankees while Griffin Canning gets the nod for the Mets.
The O/U is currently set at 9.5, while the Yankees are -135 on the moneyline. The Mets are +114. The Yankees are +142 at -1.5 runs while the Mets are -170.
Let’s get into a preview for this game and some picks that you can take on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Mets prediction, preview
Clarke Schmidt ($8,200) has allowed more than three earned runs in a game just once this season. His high in strikeouts is seven while having two other games with six strikeouts. The strikeout rate is 22.5%, but the 10.8% walk rate is troubling. He’s also allowed five home runs in 26.2 innings. The BABIP is only .246, so he’s been fortunate, which is confirmed by the 5.01 FIP.
Griffin Canning ($7,800) has been really, really good to start the season. In 42 innings, he’s posted a 2.36 ERA, but the FIP is 3.48. He’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, as the 0.86 HR/9 is a career-low by a wide margin. It’s going to be stiff test for Canning on Saturday, as the Yankees are tops in ISO while Yankee Stadium is one of the best parks for home runs.
In terms of bullpens, both the Mets and Yankees have a 3.21 FIP, tied for the third-lowest mark in MLB.
I like Canning to continue pitching well while the lefties cause trouble for Schmidt.
Yankees vs. Mets picks, best bet
Best Bet: 1+ home runs for Francisco Lindor +330
The switch-hitting Lindor’s power stroke is from the left side of the plate. The ISO is .219 compared to .105 from the other side. While Schmidt has pitched better at home than on the road, he has a 6.44 FIP against left-handed batters while the HR/9 is a whopping 2.45.
Strong Lean: Griffin Canning to Record a Win +245
I like the Mets to strike early on offense while Canning stymies the Yankees’ offense. There’s been only one game this season in which Canning failed to pitch at least five innings. There’s only been two games that he’s allowed over one earned run: his first start of the season and in his third start. Since then, one, one, zero, one and one earned run.
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