Preakness Stakes Preview & Picks
The Preakness Stakes, run at 1 3/16 miles contest for three-year old colts, geldings and fillies, is the middle and pivotal jewel in horse racing’s ultimate series, the Triple Crown. The race has shaped the legacies of champion horses such as Seabiscuit, and recent Triple Crown champions American Pharoah and Justify.
First run in 1873, the inaugural Preakness race was two years before the original Kentucky Derby. Due to cancellations from 1891-1893 this year will be the 150th, held as always at Pimlico Race Course on the third Saturday in May.
This year’s Derby winner, Sovereignty, has chosen to skip the Preakness on May 17th in favor of preparing for the Belmont Stakes in June. Heading into the race, here’s some info on the rest of the field:
Goal Oriented- Showed versatility in his only two races and both of those were within the last six weeks. He closed in the 6F MSW at SA in April on a fast track and then to the lead on a very wet track on Derby Day in a 1 1/16 Optional Claimer. I’m a little worried about the distance but certainly love the connections.
Journalism- Ran another solid race and that’s three in a row where he’s had to work extremely hard. On paper, he’s still the best in this group and I don’t believe Trainer McCarthy sticks him in this spot unless he still has some juice left. The wet track didn’t appear to hurt his chances in the Derby, but it didn’t help either. In my opinion, he’s advanced a step above all of these
American Promise- It was not a good Derby for him. He was out there early, got pushed and didn’t like it, nor did he like the mud in his face so he called it a day, finishing far behind the winner. He was 12-1 at post time which I found to be an underlay. I don’t think you can count him out to be in the mix knowing he’ll be very close to the lead and knowing Trainer Lukas’ success at The Preakness.
Heart of Heart- On paper it looks like he could contend for minor honors but I’m not buying in until I see how he responds to the track. If he does adhere, there is no reason he can’t run with the bunch. Trainer Jamie Osborn’s daughter Saffie will be the jockey and that leads to a good story
Pay Billy- Obviously he loves the Laurel track, but does that transition over to the Pimlico surface? Winning The Federico Tesio gets him a free pass into the race although, even if he does like Pimlico, he just appears a bit too slow.
River Thames- This horse really looks the part of a contender. He elected not to partake in the Derby field and that was most likely a good choice because of distance constraints. I realize this is only a 1/16 mile less but it’s the overall field and the way this race sets up. I see him as a major play in exotics wagering
Sandman- I don’t think Trainer Mark Casse wanted to make Sandman part of this field for the Preakness and was pointing to the Belmont, but when he saw the field came up short and somewhat soft, he decided it was a worthwhile choice. The seventh place finish in the Derby wasn’t horrible but the price was as closing odds were less than 6-. I look for him to be over bet again.
Clever Again- The distance shouldn’t be an issue for this nicely bred horse. It appears he’ll be motoring quickly and trying to stay close to the pace. Maybe not the winner here because the connections may be asking too much, too soon, but certainly won’t be surprised by a top-four finish.
Gosger- He has run three really nice races and it wasn’t just because he liked the track, as he did it at both Gulfstream Park & Keeneland. He’s also been working fast at Keeneland and his style fits this race. ML oddsmaker made him & Pay Billy the same odds at 20-1 but I don’t see it that way.
My Selections:
Win & Place––Journalist
Exacta Key––Journalist in the top position with American Promise, River Thames, Clever Again, Heart of Heart and Gosger underneath.
Don’t forget to participate in King of the Track on DK Horse for the 150th running of the Preakness. Opt-in on DK Horse and select a horse to win with your first $5 wager. Winners will be able to share a pool of $150,000 in cash.
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Johnny Avello is an employee of DraftKings. Personal views on the races and strategies above do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in selecting their horses to wager upon. DraftKings employees may also deploy different strategies than what is recommended above. DraftKings employees do not have access to any non-public information.
