Derrick Henry has been one of the premier running backs in the NFL, and especially in fantasy football, since he was drafted with the 45th overall pick in 2016. Across his nine-year career, he has run for 11,423 yards and 106 total touchdowns. Henry has led the league in rushing twice, led the NFL in rushing touchdowns three times and has tallied the most carries in four different seasons.
From a fantasy football perspective, Henry finished third in fantasy scoring in 2024, eighth in 2023, fourth in 2022 and fifth in 2019 based on DraftKings’ scoring system. But at 31-years-old, how long can this level of production continue for the five-time Pro Bowler?
The Baltimore Ravens are betting that it doesn’t slow down anytime soon. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, they inked last year’s free agent addition to a two-year extension worth $30 million, with $25 million guaranteed ahead of this season kicking off. This marks the largest deal for a running back over 30-years-old in NFL history. The Alabama product was heading into the final year of his contract and is coming off a season in which he rushed for 1,921 yards and an NFL-best 16 rushing touchdowns.
The concerns with Derrick Henry:
Historically, 30-years -old has been looked at as the line where running backs fall off a cliff in terms of production. 92.8% of the peak seasons of an RB1 occur between the ages of 21-28. 76% of the elite seasons from any NFL player occur between the ages of 22-26, with 94.6% of peak production in NFL history occurring before a player turns 29.
Football is a grueling sport that takes a physical toll on players’ bodies like no other. Derrick Henry has plenty of mileage already on him, with his 2,355 career carries already 32nd in NFL history. He also has avoided injuries at an impressive rate, playing 15 or more games in all but one season in his career.
Why I will continue betting on Derrick Henry:
While the age and mileage concerns are fair, few running backs are built like Derrick Henry. Standing 6-foot-3 and weighing 247 pounds, Henry very well could have ended up playing linebacker under different coaching and upbringing. Luckily for NFL fans everywhere, he took his smashmouth approach to the offensive side of the ball.
If anything, Henry looked to have some renewed energy after joining the Baltimore Ravens last year. He produced the second-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns of his career and made the playoffs for the fifth time.
Lamar Jackson is unquestionably the best quarterback Henry has ever lined up alongside, with the two-time MVP leveraging his offensive abilities as a way to generate space for Henry to capitalize on. While he still faces a stacked box more than most running backs, this has not stopped Henry’s production to any extent.
On top of this, Henry shows an impressive commitment to his body, which has paid dividends. He revealed last season that he invests $240,000 per year in body maintenance, which includes a personal chef and no intake of fried foods, gluten or artificial sugars.
If the Ravens believe in Henry’s level of production continuing, there is little evidence to doubt them. It is fair to put the 31-year-old in his own category due to his unique frame and skillset. Taking his talents to Baltimore very well may have extended his prime and overall career, and expect the entire team to be returning with a vengeance following another second-round playoff exit.
While he may not replicate the third-best fantasy production among running backs this coming season, expect him to remain in this range. Don’t be surprised if another extension is worked on once this new contract expires. Henry is an exception at the running back position, not the rule.
Feel totally comfortable drafting Henry in the top six of this year’s fantasy football drafts, and prepare for another impressive output from the Ravens’ star.
