The New York Yankees leading their division early in the season is no surprise. The Seattle Mariners being division leaders does come with a measure of unexpectedness. The upstart Mariners have taken a slim lead in the American League West. This sets up a measuring-stick contest between two early-season division leaders.
It’s an interesting clash of styles as well. The Bronx Bombers are aptly named, as usual, boasting one of the best offenses in baseball. The Seattle Mariners win with a bit of everything, boasting a solid offense and pitching staff. Those styles will once again go to battle tomorrow in the third and final game of the series.
The Yankees enter at -115 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8. Let’s take a look at the best bets for Sunday’s game.
Pick and Prediction
First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120)
For the Yankees, Will Warren takes the mound. His numbers may not show it but he’s been pitching well for a young starter. He’s giving up hard contact but missing plenty of bats, and has a lower expected ERA per Baseball Savant than his actual ERA. He had a strong outing against the good Athletics lineup in his last turn, giving up just one run over 7.1 innings. Warren could make it two in a row against a Mariners lineup due for some regression.
The Mariners have Luis Castillo on the bump. The 32-year-old righty is a three-time All-Star and one of the steadying forces on this star-studded Mariners pitching staff. Though he faces an imposing Yankee lineup, he can more than hold his own with the best hitters in the league, and I expect him to do so on Wednesday.
A young starter turning the corner. A steady veteran looking to contain a strong offense. I think this adds up to an under across the first five innings.
Yankees Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (+114)
Here’s me doubling down on Seattle pitching excellence. Some of this relates to their performance on Tuesday, as starting pitcher Bryan Woo held them scoreless for 6.1 innings, allowing only four hits. This Yankees offense is tough to keep down for long, no doubt. Getting shut down one night before a day game against another great starter is a tall task.
Perhaps they can rebound and handle Castillo, or find a way to get to this bullpen. But I’m not bullish on anyone’s ability to score against Seattle, especially in the comfort of their home ballpark.
