Happy Monday! Here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cubs -1.5 (-120) vs. Marlins
The Cubs are in the middle of some offensive regression to the mean, which is fine. They were punching above their weight class with their bats. Which isn’t to say they can’t hit—they very, very much can. It’s just those series against the Brewers, Giants, and Mets saw them go 2-5 in their last week of play. They failed to score more than two runs in four of those seven games.
However, this is a fine get-right spot against arguably the Marlins’ weakest right-handed rotation arm in Cal Quantrill (7.11 ERA). Pete Crow-Armstrong seemed about the only hitter who remained at all locked-in at the plate at Citi Field this past weekend, so the friendly confines of Wrigley should do wonders for Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and co.
The Cubs have been without Ian Happ, and that matters in terms of their run production, apparently. Happ has been a fantastic top-of-the-order anchor for these Cubs, and shifting PCA there weakens the bottom of the lineup. But Happ seems on track to return tonight against the Marlins.
Even if he doesn’t, the matchup still favors Chicago. All those left-handed Cubs bats at home against a struggling righty? Even Michael Busch got in on the XBH fun this past weekend. Cubs win big at home tonight.
Padres -1.5 (-102) vs. Angels
It’s Michael King and the Padres’ bats against the Los Angeles Angels batters. I really almost left this analysis as just that sentence. The Padres priced as slight underdogs at any runline tonight feels a little wacky. Is it because Jackson Merrill got scratched yesterday with an illness? Because, other than Hunter Goodman’s big day and a must-needed rest for an offense that scored—ahem—34 runs on Friday and Saturday before they put up a measly three on Sunday—how dare they!—these San Diego bats feel like they’re triangulating pitches-to-barrels at a military-grade rate.
You can go check all the stats for yourself on this one. I must not be seeing something. But this’ll be a two-unit bet for me tonight. The Angels stink, and the Padres do not. Yusei Kikuchi has been inconsistent; Michael King has not.
I’m slamming this runline.
Astros (-122) vs. Royals
The Royals spent the weekend losing two-of-three to the Red Sox at home; both those losses were by two-or-more runs. And I think Houston’s starter tonight, Ryan Gusto, is for real. His K/BB of 29/8 over 27.2 innings is better, in terms of the ratio, than KC’s Michael Wacha’s 34/14. And if you get these Kansas City hitters swinging-and-missing, you’ve got a great shot to suffocate them altogether, as evidenced by Boston’s strikeout-heavy approach in the two wins this weekend.
Just like the Cubs, it may be the case that the Royals are going through a bit of a calibration period offensively. Even during their six-game win streak, they only scored more than four runs once. It came back to bite them at home against Boston.
They’re already 8-11 on the road. Royals fall to 8-12 on the road tonight in Houston.
