The series is tied at 1-1 and the Jets are coming off a big shutout win in Game 2. With the series shifting to Dallas for today’s Game 3 matchup, Winnipeg is a +115 road underdog on the Moneyline. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the game total is set at O/U 5.5 goals with the usual goaltenders––Jake Oettinger and Connor Hellebuyck––starting between the pipes.
Please read below for my top prediction and pick for Stars vs. Jets Game 3 in the second round of the NHL Playoffs.
Check out the DK Network betting group where analysts drop their best bets and picks each day! Join the group and see today’s NHL best bets here: NHL Best Bets Today: DK Network Betting Group Picks for Sunday 5/11/25
Stars vs. Jets Game 3 preview, prediction
Game 2 marked the second game this postseason that the Stars’ elite offensive attack has been held scoreless. Oettinger played poorly, stopping 21-of-24 shots, and Hellebuyck returned to his regular-season form, stopping all 21 shot attempts and picking up his first shutout of the postseason. Dallas still generated a 61.69% expected goal percentage in Game 2 and should receive an extra boost playing in front of the home crowd. Across four home games this postseason, the Stars have averaged 3.75 goals per game, a much better average than their 1.80 goals per game when playing on the road.
The most important factor in Game 3 is the location. Hellebuyck posted his best game of the postseason on Friday night but he’s only been viable when playing at home. Even with the recent shutout factored in, he is still the worst starting goaltender in terms of goals saved above expected and save percentage above expected. Hellebuyck was unable to finish any of the three road games against St. Louis in the first round, posting a putrid .758 save percentage and 7.24 GAA.
Stars vs. Jets Game 3 pick, best bet
Winnipeg lost its three road games in the first round by a combined score of 17-5. Hellebuyck has simply been awful on the road and there’s no reason to believe that the Stars won’t take advantage of it. This series has been physical and penalties have been common, but the Jets have struggled on the power play, converting just 1-of-9 opportunities in two games. If Dallas can continue to limit Winnipeg’s usually elite power play and take advantage of Hellebuyck’s road troubles, I see a big win at home brewing.
Let’s go further than winning straight up at -135 odds on the Moneyline––I like the Stars to win in regulation at +105 odds. Don’t be afraid to throw a little something on Mikko Rantanen anytime goalscorer (+140). He’s recorded eight goals and two hat-tricks in just the last five games, and already hat-tricked Hellebuyck in Game 1.
