After two games of the Eastern Conference semifinals, the Cleveland Cavaliers find themselves on the precipice, trailing 2-0 to the Indiana Pacers, although they should get a boost if all three of their injured players are able to make a return tonight. The Denver Nuggets, too, will seek to bounce back from their 149-106 drubbing at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday.
Here are my best bets for today’s Game 3’s at DraftKings Sportsbook, with two from each game.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
Cleveland Cavaliers -5 (-110)
After blowing a seven-point lead with less than a minute left in Game 2, Cleveland must come into this game feeling angry. Donovan Mitchell, especially, must be raring to go after scoring 48 points on Tuesday night. And the fact that the Cavaliers nearly won the game against one of the league’s best and hottest teams despite being without Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter is a silver lining in itself, regardless of the heartbreaking end result. With all of Garland, Mobley, and Hunter at least aiming to play tonight and the rest of the team on two days’ rest, it feels like a statement game is incoming.
Cleveland didn’t win 64 games by accident; with all of its pieces healthy, this team is really, really good. Although it lost three of the four games to the Pacers during the regular season, two of them came in the final three games of the season, when the Cavaliers had already clinched the No. 1 seed. In Game 1, Indiana had some fluky shooting luck, draining 19 of its 36 (52.8%) three-point attempts, and in Game 2, Ty Jerome shot just one-for-14 from the field, by far his least efficient performance of the season. This isn’t to discredit the Pacers, who, rightfully, are -185 favorites to send Cleveland home, but the Cavaliers are far too good to go down without a fight.
Max Strus 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+100)
Indiana’s defense has been absolutely stifling so far this series; while wide-open threes have accounted for 20% or more of five of the eight teams’ shots so far in the second round, Cleveland’s shooters have had six or more feet of separation on just 14.9% of their total tries in the first two games. If the Pacers ultimately go on to pull off the upset, their suffocating scheme will be the primary reason why. Cleveland shot 38.3% from beyond the arc during the regular season, the second-best mark in the league; so far in the second round, it’s shooting just 26.0%, and that’s not entirely a matter of luck.
But in Strus’ case, it probably is, since he’s missed some easy looks. 14 of his 20 three-point attempts so far this series have come with the nearest defender more than four feet away, a shot that he hit at a 42.4% clip in the regular season but just a 21.4% mark so far this series. I’d expect that figure to improve in Game 3, even if his four-for-six mark on contested triples goes down. He’s made three or more three-pointers in four of his six playoff games and would have in Game 1 if he didn’t shoot one-for-five on uncontested threes.
Either Denver Nuggets or Oklahoma City Thunder to Win by 5 or Less (+200)
Several of the reasons that the Thunder won Wednesday’s Game 2 so convincingly are sustainable, such as their plus-four free throw differential and plus-12 turnover differential. I pointed out after the first game that Denver out-rebounded Oklahoma City, 63-43, and Mark Daigneault indeed made adjustments, spending more time with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — a duo that grabbed 6.7 more rebounds per 100 possessions than opponents during the regular season — together. On Wednesday, the Thunder grabbed 44 boards to the Nuggets’ 38. Another blowout is possible if Nikola Jokić can’t stay out of foul trouble.
But we’ve seen how well Denver responded after getting blown out by the LA Clippers in Game 3 of the first round; the Nuggets raced out to a 20-point lead through three quarters and, though they couldn’t hold it, ended up winning by two after Aaron Gordon’s buzzer-beating tip-in. Plus, during the regular season, Denver’s net rating was 3.2 points per 100 possessions better at home than on the road, and opponents shot just 43.0% in the fourth-quarter of games at Ball Arena, owing to fatigue from its high altitude. The Nuggets were 1-1 against Oklahoma City at home, and the Thunder shot just 43.2% from the field there and 47.9% in the teams’ games on the prairie. A fourth-quarter comeback will mean a tight game.
Alex Caruso 11+ Points + Assists (-120)
Game 1 was the Caru-show, as the Bald Eagle made seven of his 12 field-goal attempts and five of his nine triples in a 20-point, six-assist, five-steal masterpiece, nearly willing his team to a victory. He was on track to receive similar minutes in Game 2; he typically enters the game near the end of the first quarter, comes out about halfway through the second quarter, then plays spot minutes in the third before closing alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, and Hartenstein. But the scoreline was so lopsided on Wednesday that there was no reason for him to come out in the second half.
Other than that, Caruso has recorded 11 or more combined points and assists in each of the four non-blowouts that Oklahoma City has played in these playoffs after hitting that mark in 21 of his 54 regular-season games. He has received 24.3 minutes per game in these tight contests, and during both the regular season and postseason, he averaged more than 11 combined P/A per 24 minutes. He’s played stifling defense so far on both Aaron Gordon and Russell Westbrook, which should keep his minutes high, and Denver allowed the ninth-most points and fifth-most assists to guards during the regular season. Although those figures have improved slightly in the playoffs, Caruso’s important role and the Nuggets’ shaky defense make this a high-value proposition.
