The Maple Leafs won the first two games in Toronto but the series will now shift to Florida for the next two games, including tonight’s Game 3 matchup. Florida is in desperate need of a win and finds itself as a -240 Moneyline home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at O/U 5.5 goals and the goaltender matchup will be Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Joseph Woll.
Please read below for my top prediction and pick for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 3 in the second round of the NHL Playoffs.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 3 preview, prediction
Toronto may have played some sloppy hockey in Games 1 and 2 but it was enough to take an early 2-0 series lead heading into Game 3 in Florida. To this point, the Panthers have out-chanced and out-shot the Maple Leafs in both games, but it hasn’t fully translated to finding the back of the net. This postseason, Florida ranks eighth in 5v5 goal percentage and fourth in goals above expected. It has scored at least three goals in back-to-back games but Bobrovsky’s unusual below-average postseason goaltending has hindered the team’s ability to secure a win this series. Among the starting postseason goaltenders with at least five starts, Bobrovsky ranks 13th in goals saved above expected, grouped next to struggling goaltenders like Connor Hellebuyck and Adin Hill.
Despite its usual postseason antics, Toronto has been a wagon. It has received ample offensive support from all over its lineup but the second line comprised of John Tavares, William Nylander and Max Pacioretty has been cooking, netting five goals in just three games together. The Leafs have been deadly on offense this postseason, scoring at least four goals in 5-of-7 games thus far, and ranking second in 5v5 goal percentage. The power play unit ranks sixth this postseason but has particularly struggled against Florida’s second-ranked penalty kill, going just 1-of-8 on the power play in Games 1 and 2. Woll has given the Leafs essentially the same dependability as Anthony Stolarz did before his injury, posting -0.1 goals saved above expected.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 3 pick, best bet
With both Games 1 and 2 each decided by one goal, I’m expecting the home-ice advantage to give the Panthers the edge in Game 3. Florida was a strong team at home during the regular season, posting a 28-13-2 record, and it does not want to fall into the dreaded 0-3 hole against a team that collapses every single postseason. The Panthers have the edge in playoff experience, having totaled more postseason wins across just the last two years than the Leafs have since 2013. During the regular season, these teams met four times with Florida winning thrice, outscoring Toronto 13-7. -240 Moneyline odds is boring, to be honest, so I’m pivoting to a statement win at home for Florida, where it wins by more than one goal, breaking the current series trend.
