I’m not too young to remember when Toronto was the city of mashers, as Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnación launched bombs deep into the bleachers at the Rodgers Centre. Unfortunately, the 6ix is no longer the home of power hitters, or of a particularly good baseball team; the Blue Jays are just 16-20 and have hit only 25 home runs this season, the fewest of any team in baseball.
That power drought has extended even to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who hasn’t quite returned to the heights he hit as a 22-year-old in 2021, when he hit 48 home runs and finished second in AL MVP voting. His 2025 season hasn’t been bad so far — .281/.369/.422 slash line, with four home runs and 18 RBI’s — but it hasn’t been quite up to his lofty standards. He’s starting to turn it around, though; in his last 11 games, he’s posted an .898 OPS and three homers.
He should have a good chance to continue his upturn against the Los Angeles Angels, who have had one of the league’s worst pitching staffs this offseason.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Toronto is a 1.5-run favorite and the total is set for 8.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Guerrero.
Best Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O1.5 Bases (+125)
I’ve expressed optimism about Angels starter José Soriano, who has looked ace-level at times and replacement-level at others. He’s coming off a good start, and as I alluded to earlier, the Blue Jays’ offense isn’t very good. Soriano has been good at inducing grounders, so I’m not banking on even Vladdy to get the ball up and out of the park, even in one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in baseball. But that doesn’t mean hard-hit grounders that get through the infield aren’t in play; Soriano ranks in just the 19th percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 26th percentile in average exit velocity. Guerrero only has seven doubles this season, but his 44 in 2024 ranked third in the American League, and he’s had 12 multi-hit games so far this season. Plus, Soriano loves to throw fastballs — his sinker and four-seamer combine to represent 58% of his pitches — and so far in 2025, Guerrero has posted a .347 batting average and a .415 wOBA on the pitch.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O0.5 Walks (Batter) (+140)
A slugger with as much raw talent as Guerrero might be incentivized to swing away at everything, but he’s actually exhibited a remarkable amount of patience throughout his career. He’s ranked in the AL’s top 10 twice in walks drawn and top three in OBP twice, and he still has a 78th percentile walk rate and a 59th percentile chase rate even in what has been a down season. Meanwhile, while Soriano has thrown a career-high 49.9% of pitches in the zone, he has induced chases at a career-low rate, just 23.8%, a figure that ranks in just the 17th percentile in all of baseball. His patented sinker also tends to break towards the right, and Guerrero swings less when the ball is on the inside rather than the outside.
