Thursday’s evening MLB slate is a small but mighty one, with five games scheduled for first pitch between 6:40 p.m. and 9:40 p.m. ET. The marquee game is the last game of the day, when the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers — who current lead the NL West at 25-12 — will host the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are just fourth in the NL West despite a solid 19-18 record. To contextualize how strong the division is, the Diamondbacks would rank second if they played in the AL East or NL Central.
But several star pitchers will crest the hill, not just the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Philadelphia Phillies’ Jesús Luzardo has been one of the breakout stars of the 2025 season so far, leading all of the major leagues in WAR. Luzardo will take the mound against Ryan Pepiot and the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:10 p.m. ET.
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Record a Win (+110)
It’s surprising that the league leader in ERA, who happens to play for the world’s best team, only has a 4-2 record. That’s how the story has gone for a Los Angeles offense that has been on again and off again despite the talent up and down the roster. Yes, Yamamoto got out-dueled by Paul Skenes on April 25 in an early battle for the NL Cy Young Award, but he wasn’t that bad: five innings, three runs (one earned), four walks, and five strikeouts. He just hasn’t gotten much run support, as the Dodgers haven’t scored more than three runs in any of his last five starts. But Los Angeles’ offense is starting to trend upwards, having scored 10 or more runs four times in the past eight games, although three of those games came against the woeful Miami Marlins’ pitching staff.
Although he’s due for some regression towards his still-impressive 2.27 FIP figure, I’m confident that Yamamoto won’t give up more than one earned run, given that he’s done that just once all season, and I’m also confident that he’ll pitch at least the minimum five innings required to get the win. So the question, effectively, hinges on whether or not the Dodgers can score at least two runs in the first five innings and then hold on with their bullpen. I’m confident that they can get it done against Brandon Pfaadt, who has given up a home run in four of his seven starts and faces a lineup that has hit the second-most long balls of any team. Pfaadt is prone to the occasional hanging curve and ranks in just the 16th percentile in average exit velocity.
Jesús Luzardo 7+ Strikeouts (+120)
Admittedly, I’ve picked Luzardo to throw seven strikeouts before, and he only recorded six, but I’m giving him a shot at redemption. That outing came in just his third start of the season on April 10, after he’d started the season with 19 strikeouts across two games. To be fair, he’s only hit the seven-strikeout figure once since then, but he’s solidified himself as a truly elite pitcher, with a 1.94 FIP figure that matches his ERA and ranks second in the National League. The Peruvian has elite breaking stuff, induces whiffs at an 86th percentile clip, and also gets batters to chase at an 82nd percentile rate. He’s also throwing more and more pitches in the zone, but batters aren’t swinging at a notably higher rate.
Plus, Tampa Bay has had a horrible start to May. The Rays are just 2-4 this month and, overall, have lost six of their last eight games. Losses in the Bronx against the New York Yankees were excusable — after all, New York does have one of the most potent power combinations in the league and was just in the World Series six months ago — but a sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals really isn’t. Tampa Bay has posted the league’s lowest OPS since the start of the month by 1.3 percentage points and has struck out the fifth-most times across that span. If Zach Wheeler can rack up nine strikeouts like he did on Tuesday, Luzardo can get seven.
José Soriano O17.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
This season, Soriano has been extremely inconsistent, as he’s looked like an ace at times while also struggling mightily at others. In his previous outing, he out-dueled reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal by going six scoreless innings, walking one and striking out five, before the Angels’ bullpen blew his lead. He also pitched seven innings of two-hit ball against the Chicago White Sox in the team’s second game of the season and gave up just one run in 7.2 innings against the Rays two weeks later. But in the other four starts, he lasted fewer than six innings and gave up three or more earned runs.
I’m confident that tonight will be one of his positive outings. Quite simply, Toronto just has no power, ranking dead last in home runs and fourth-to-last in slugging percentage. Soriano is also well-suited to neutralize one of the Blue Jays’ strengths; although their hitters don’t typically hit a lot of ground balls, the 26-year-old flamethrower ranks in the 97th percentile in inducing them. Ground balls are typically more likely to lead to outs than fly balls, which should allow him to breeze through the lineup. Los Angeles also hasn’t had an off-day since April 28 and won’t have another one until May 15, so manager Ron Washington likely wants to keep his bullpen fresh.
