The Oilers rallied with three third-period goals to secure the Game 1 win over the Golden Knights but are +115 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s Game 2 matchup. The game total is set at O/U 5.5 goals with both Adin Hill and Calvin Pickard starting between the pipes.
Please read below for my top prediction and pick for Golden Knights vs. Oilers Game 2 in the second round of the NHL Playoffs.
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Game 2 preview, prediction
Vegas led for the majority of the game but fell apart in the third period and allowed three unanswered goals. Unsurprisingly, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been cooking but the depth has stepped up, too. The Oilers outshot the Knights, 28-17, in Game 1 and dominated 5v5 play, generating a staggering 71.1% expected goal percentage. Among postseason teams, they rank first in 5v5 expected goal percentage and fourth in 5v5 high-danger chances. Vegas has been on the opposite end of these metrics, ranking 15th out of 16 postseason teams in 5v5 goal percentage and goals above expected.
Pickard let up two first-period goals to Mark Stone but stopped 15-of-17 shots in the 4-3 win. While his -0.8 goals saved above expected doesn’t jump off the page, he has won five straight games and has been more trustworthy than Stuart Skinner. Pickard has provided average goaltending, which is good enough when McDavid and Draisaitl are leading the charge on offense. Hill stopped 24-of-28 shots and has been one of the worst goaltenders this postseason in terms of goals saved above expected. You do not want to be grouped next to Connor Hellebuyck in any postseason goalie metrics right now.
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Game 2 pick, best bet
The Oilers are finally receiving somewhat reliable goaltending, which is bad news for the Knights. Quite frankly, it is hard to believe they even advanced past the first round based on their current postseason metrics. Edmonton dominated 5v5 play in Game 1 and Hill has allowed at least three goals in 4-of-7 postseason games thus far. Both McDavid and Draisaitl are locked in and the Oilers’ depth has provided ample production during this five-game winning streak. I think they make it six wins tonight and at plus odds, who am I to not sprinkle a little cash on a dog with McJesus leading the way?
