The Denver Nuggets’ chances of making their second conference finals appearance in three years hinge on the shoulders of one man: Nikola Jokić. But when that man happens to be the best basketball player in the world, anything — including upsetting the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder — is possible.
In Denver’s 121-119 win on Monday in Game 1 of the teams’ second-round series, Jokić did Jokić things: 42 points (including 26 in the second half), 22 boards, six assists, one steal, and two blocks. He’ll need to do so again tonight in Game 2, which tips off at the Paycom Center at 9:30 p.m. ET.
The Nuggets are 10.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 229.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around the three-time MVP.
Best Nikola Jokić Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Nikola Jokić 15+ Rebounds (+125)
Prior to Game 1, I referenced the Thunder’s lack of size in the interior as a point of concern in picking Jokić to snag 14 or more rebounds. In grabbing 22, he repaid my faith with ease. So for Game 2, I’m upping the ante by one, backing the Joker to have his 23rd 15-plus rebound game of the season, of which three — including Monday night’s effort — have come against Oklahoma City (and no, I’m not backing him to have 20 boards in Game 7). The Thunder did a very good job getting in the way; 12 of his 22 boards were contested, the second-highest percentage among the 20 players with double-digit boards so far in the second round, and he snagged 71.0% of his rebound chances, the second-highest rate among the 18 players who were contested on at least half of their rebounds. His average board came just 3.6 feet away from the basket, the closest of any player with 10 or more boards. If it was a matter of luck — for instance, if his boards were uncontested or if they came further away from the basket — I might pick Jokić’s rebounding to fall back to earth in Game 2, but his Game 1 performance was all positioning, strength, and skill.
Nikola Jokić Most Points (+255)
Of course, I understand that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — a man who is likely to relegate Jokić to his second MVP runner-up finish in the last three seasons — stands across from Jokić. Gilgeous-Alexander is a man who nearly averaged one point per minute played, a feat accomplished by only Wilt Chamberlain and Joel Embiid, and he’s both the league’s most prolific driver and one of its most efficient midrange shooters, who, for good measure, has led the league in made free-throws in each of the last two seasons. But Jokić outscored him by nine points in Game 1, and while it was tied for Gilgeous-Alexander’s 20th-least efficient shooting performance of the season, nine points is a lot for the Canadian to make up, especially with +255 odds.
In large part, it depends on how much interim head coach Nikola JokićDavid Adelman trusts Michael Porter Jr., one of the other players on the roster most capable of creating his own shot. In Game 1, the answer was…not much. Porter played just 24 minutes and scored just two points on one-for-eight shooting, and it was 36-year-old Oklahoma City legend Russell Westbrook who was on the court in crunch time. But at this point in his career, Westbrook isn’t as reliable of a self-creator in this stage of his career than either Porter or the prime version of himself. When the lights are brightest, Adelman will have to turn to Jokić, who should continue to post high usage rates until he starts to fatigue.
