Is it opposite’s day or something? So far in the second round of the NBA playoffs, road teams are five-for-five, with last night’s Indiana Pacers comeback over the Cleveland Cavaliers probably the most shocking result yet.
The New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets can make that seven tonight, as they seek to take 2-0 leads on the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, respectively.
Here are my best bets for today’s Game 6’s at DraftKings Sportsbook, with two from each game.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7 p.m. ET
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET
Boston Celtics -10.5 (-110)
It seems fairly likely that one of the teams that lost in Game 1 is going to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2, and as a Los Angeles Lakers fan, I unfortunately think that that’s going to be Boston. The Celtics were well on their way to blowing the Knicks out in Game 1 — they had a 20-point lead in the third quarter — and then they took their foot off the gas. OG Anunoby and Clutch Player of the Year Jalen Brunson played critical roles in leading the comeback, but Boston surely couldn’t have planned to shoot four-for-21 from the field and two-for-15 from beyond the arc in Game 2. That shooting will normalize at some point.
When I sat down to predict this series, I figured there’d be one blowout, one moderate Celtics win, and four close games that went either way, with Boston ultimately coming out on top in six games. I didn’t expect Game 1 to be one of the two tight New York wins, but the overall calculus hasn’t changed. The Celtics are angry, and responding in Game 2 would seem like the most logical place for a blowout. Just as they are prone to the occasional 15-for-60 three-point shooting night, they’re also capable of going 30-for-60. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard aren’t going to shoot 11-for-43 combined on open or wide-open threes again.
Karl-Anthony Towns 35+ Points + Rebounds (+210)
The fact that Towns’ over-under line for points plus rebounds is just 29.5 is disrespectful to a player who averaged 24.4 points and 12.8 boards per game during the regular season, is a lock to make an All-NBA team for the third time in his career, and had two 35+ combined point/rebound efforts and one 23-point, 11-board game last series. Sure, he ghosted a bit in the fourth quarter of Game 1, attempting only four shots in the fourth quarter and overtime while letting Anunoby and Brunson take over, but he’s still a Hall of Fame talent who can get his on offense whenever he wants to. He reached 35 combined P/R 45 times during the regular season, including twice against Boston.
He’s especially likely to reach that number depending on the status of Kristaps Porzingis, who left Game 1 early due to an illness that may have been related to the respiratory issue that held him out for eight games at the end of February and start of March. Although Porzingis has been listed as probable for tonight’s contest, there’s no telling if he’ll be anywhere close to 100%. At his best, Porzingis is one of the league’s best post defenders — during the regular season, opponents shot just 47.7% within six feet of the basket when guarded by him, the second-lowest mark among 334 players to defend at least 100 shots at the rim — but if he isn’t healthy, 38-year-old Al Horford will have trouble stopping Towns inside.
Denver Nuggets O111.5 Points (+127)
The Nuggets’ recipe to a Game 1 victory was fairly sustainable, which should concern Oklahoma City moving forward. Nikola Jokić was brilliant, of course, with a 42-point, 22-rebound masterpiece, but that’s to be expected from the best player in the world. It’s not like Denver shot particularly well — 44.2% from the field, 31.3% from three — and the Thunder didn’t shoot horribly, either — 42.0% from the field and 34.9% from three. Oklahoma City won the turnover battle by nine and leads all conference semifinals participants in both fast-break points and points off turnovers so far; with the exception of a five-for-20 night from Jalen Williams, the Thunder did their jobs in Game 1.
You simply can’t get out-rebounded 63-43, as Oklahoma City did in Game 1, and expect to win, and after the Thunder allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game during the regular season, that was a genuine concern coming into the playoffs. Denver had 54 points in the paint and 27 second-chance points, and as excellent of an interior defender as Chet Holmgren is — he was the only rim protector better this season than Porzingis — he weighs only 213 pounds, 71 pounds lighter than Jokić. If the Nuggets continue to feed Big Honey in the paint, and he can continue drawing fouls on both Isaiah Hartenstein and Holmgren, Denver is going to score points and maybe even win games.
Jalen Williams 2+ Steals (-105)
Just like I picked Towns to have a bounce-back performance against the Celtics, I also back Williams to rebound after a rough Game 1 outing in which he was probably Oklahoma City’s least impactful player. He had just 16 points and shot just five-for-20 from the field, two-for-nine from beyond the arc, and just four-for-six from the free-throw line, his least efficient shooting performance of the season. There were other players who bear some responsibility for the defeat — primarily Holmgren, whose defense on Jokić wasn’t great and who missed two free throws to give the Nuggets a chance at winning in the first place — but Williams has to be better in Game 2.
He’ll be better on offense too, but I’m not taking his points total, given that his number is set to an all-too-high 22.5. He did make an impact on defense in Game 1, recording two steals and two blocks and holding Aaron Gordon to seven points in the 22 possessions that he guarded him, and I’m taking him to do so again tonight. Denver gives up too many turnovers — that’s what happens when Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook share the floor — ranking in the bottom half in that category during the regular season and the bottom five so far these playoffs. All of the Thunder are poised to benefit, but Williams is the roster’s most versatile defender.
