The NBA Playoffs are off to an absolutely electric start, with the second round taking things up another notch. All four of the road underdogs produced an opening game victory to steal home court, with the Pacers following this up with a Game 2 victory as well last night. Road teams are 5-0 in the second round entering tonight.
Two games are taking place on tonight’s slate, with the Celtics looking to bounce back following their overtime loss to the Knicks in the series opener. Then, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be looking to get back in the win column after the Denver Nuggets managed to pull out the last-second upset victory in their debut matchup. In both opening games, the favorite entering the game held control of the matchup for the majority of the game before the road team stormed back to get the result.
With a pair of Game 2 matchups on the slate, here are my favorite player prop bets for each team in Wednesday’s matchups.
Al Horford Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+150)
Missed three-pointers were the story of the Boston Celtics’ Game 1 loss. They shot an uncharacteristic 15-60 (25.0%) from beyond the three-point arc, marking the most three-point misses ever tallied in a playoff series. Al Horford shot 1-for-5 from the perimeter, finishing with seven points and seven rebounds. The larger story regarding Horford was the 38-year-old seeing 34 minutes of action with Kristaps Porzingis leaving the game due to illness. Porzingis is listed as probable for tonight’s matchup, but has failed to look like himself since this illness has popped up. Through the opening six games of the playoffs, Porzingis is averaging just 10.0 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 32.8% from the field and 11.8% from beyond the three-point arc.
As Porzingis continues to find his footing, don’t be shocked if Horford’s level of opportunity remains expanded. The 18-year NBA veteran is still playing at a high level and has served as “old reliable” within this Celtics organization. After playing 27.7 minutes per game across the regular season, Horford is averaging 32.7 minutes per game in the postseason. He shot 36.3% from the perimeter across the regular season and is connecting on 35.3% of his three-point attempts thus far in the playoffs.
The five-time All-Star also has shot the ball at a higher rate and with better efficiency when playing at home. Across his career, he has shot 40.0% from beyond the three-point arc compared to 35.4% on the road. This season, Horford shot 38.9% from the perimeter in Boston compared to 33.3% on the road. The Celtics are looking to bounce back after the Game 1 loss and will have the home crowd behind them tonight. He has made at least one three-pointer in 12 of the last 13 games and in 51 career playoff games. Look for Horford to step up in a matchup where his skill set will be necessary. Getting +150 odds for Horford to connect with over 1.5 made three-pointers as he did in 33 of the 60 games this regular season is great value and I like his chances of knocking down a pair of three-pointers tonight.
OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points (-115)
One of the biggest performers in the early rounds of these playoffs has been OG Anunoby. There was some doubt about the 27-year-old being capable of living up to the expectations brought on by his five-year, $212.5 million contract signed this offseason. But Anunoby is proving plenty of people wrong, averaging 19.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.3 steals across his first seven playoff games. He is leading the NBA in minutes per game this postseason and has tallied over 16.5 points in five of the seven games.
Anunoby has averaged 21.7 points per game across his past 15 games and has been called on at a greater rate within this Knicks offense. He is attempting 15.0 FGA and 6.9 3PA per game across the playoffs after averaging 13.9 FGA and 6.2 3PA in the regular season.
Jalen Brunson remains at the epicenter of the Knicks’ attack but was held to 9-for-23 from the field in Game 1. Anunoby has been called on at a more regular rate in the playoff setting and has delivered. He possesses the size and skill to go toe-to-toe with this Celtics team, and is playing the most polished basketball of his career. It would not shock me if there is an even larger focus on getting the ball out of Brunson’s hands from Boston’s perspective, making other members of the Knicks step up. Look for Anunoby to continue performing at a high level and record over 16.5 points for the sixth time in this playoff run.
Russell Westbrook Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
The Russell Westbrook experience is always a roller coaster, but has been a clear net positive for the Denver Nuggets across this playoff run. The former MVP is playing 26.3 minutes per game and averaging 14.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game through the start of this playoff run. Westbrook has tallied over 20.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in five of the seven playoff games thus far.
Denver’s depth was already a point of concern for this Nuggets team entering the playoffs. This has only increased with Michael Porter Jr clearly battling through his shoulder injury while Aaron Gordon also is banged up. Westbrook has made the most of these additional chances, and his energy is paying dividends in this series. There are still moments where it feels there is a bit too much Westbrook or a streak of disappointing decisions, but what he has brought to the table has far outweighed this.
There are only six players on Denver’s roster playing over 14 minutes per game, with Westbrook dominating the bench opportunities. The biggest concern regarding this Thunder team has been their inexperience in a postseason setting. It is not time to begin celebrating this belief after one win, but Westbrook will never feel like he doesn’t belong or that the moment is too large for him. Expect his energy level to continue translating to the box score and for Westbrook to make his impact felt in this matchup. Look for him to tally over 20.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists for the sixth time in the first eight playoff games, with his presence sure to be notable throughout tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 45.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-120)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander kicked the second round off with a 33-point, 10-rebound, and eight-assist performance against the Nuggets. The Thunder superstar led the NBA in scoring across the regular season and is at the epicenter of all of Oklahoma City’s production. This is acknowledged by both sides, with Denver throwing additional bodies at Gilgeous-Alexander and forcing the ball out of his hands at a more regular rate as the game progressed.
Denver has struggled defensively all season, ranking 26th in opponents’ points allowed and 22nd in defensive rating. Gilgeous-Alexander logged a 30.8% usage rate in Game 1 after averaging a 33.7% usage rate against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Thunder will continue to funnel offense through Gilgeous-Alexander as much as the game allows, but I prefer the combination bet for this Game 2 matchup. The likely MVP averaged 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds across the regular season and has recorded more than 45.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in back-to-back matchups entering tonight.
Expect the Thunder to play with some desperation tonight and for Gilgeous-Alexander to be at the heart of the production. There are still some doubts regarding some of the notable supporting cast members with this Thunder team, while Gilgeous-Alexander has been as advertised in this postseason setting. This is a matchup where Oklahoma City will need him to play like the true superstar he can be, and I like his chances of cruising past 45.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in the process.
