The Boston Celtics have reached desperation mode sooner than expected, dropping into a 0-2 hole in this Eastern Conference semifinals. Boston is the first team in 29 years to lose multiple playoff games that they have led by at least 20 after doing it in both games to start this series.
This second-round battle will now travel to New York in what is sure to be a spirited atmosphere at the Mecca of Basketball. Despite trailing 0-2, the defending champions still hold -125 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the series, with New York holding +105 odds of advancing. This Game 3 matchup will be crucial to deciding the outcome of the series, with no team in NBA history having come back from being down 3-0 in a playoff series.
Looking at today’s odds, the Celtics are 5.5-point favorites and -258 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks hold +210 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 208 for this matchup.
Here are my favorite prop bets for this Eastern Conference semifinals series Game 3 battle.
Jayson Tatum Over 28.5 Points (-105)
It has not been a series to remember for Jayson Tatum. Through the opening two games in this series, he has scored 36 total points and has shot 12-for-42 (28.6%) from the field and 5-for-20 (25.0%) from beyond the three-point arc. The Duke product has gotten to the free-throw line just nine total times and has not found his footing offensively at all. While the impact of the Knicks’ defense cannot be ignored, some of this has simply has come down to Tatum missing shots.
The six-time All-Star averaged 26.8 points per game across the regular season and has averaged as many as 30.8 points per game across a playoff run. Injuries have become a bigger factor than hoped for Boston already in this series. Jaylen Brown does not look to have his expected level of explosiveness, Father Time looks to be finally catching up to Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis continues to battle the viral illness he has battled for months. While Porzingis deserves credit for continuing to battle through, it does not take an advanced eye to see that he does not look like himself.
If Boston is to have a chance in this game and in this series, it is going to take Jayson Tatum looking like the All-NBA caliber player he is capable of being. With the home crowd backing the Knicks, expect more to be Tatum’s plate with the old cliche of role players performing better at home in mind. Expect some positive shooting variance as the 26.3% he shot from the floor in the previous game, marked the ninth-worst field goal percentage across his 119 games of playoff action. Tatum tallied over 35 points in three of the four games he played against Orlando in the opening round and will have plenty of shot opportunities on his plate today. Count on him being in attack mode and putting forth the face-of-the-franchise performance the team will need.
Jayson Tatum Over 10.5 Rebounds (+100)
While he has not been scoring the ball at a high level, Tatum continues to level up as one of the best rebounders in basketball. He tallied 30 combined rebounds across the first two games in this series, comfortably clearing his rebounding prop in both games. This comes after a regular season in which Tatum averaged 8.7 rebounds per game and tallied over 10.5 rebounds in 20 games.
The battle on the boards will continue to play a key role in the outlook of this series. New York does a great job swarming the offensive glass and creating extra possessions with Josh Hart at the center of these efforts. In contrast, Porzingis’ illness and Al Horford’s struggles have further magnified Tatum’s importance in rebounding by Tatum. After Porzingis averaged 6.8 rebounds per game across the regular season, his output has slipped to 5.3 in the postseason. Despite Horford’s minutes per game increasing from 27.7 in the regular season to 32.1 in the playoffs, his rebounding output has only moved from 6.2 to 6.4.
While the commitment to launching three-point attempts at an all-time high rate has been a part of the Celtics’ issue in this series, Tatum’s ability to scale down in positions has been essential to making it possible. He serves as just about a full-time power forward for this Celtics team while even spending stretches at center. With Boston’s big men struggling, it should not be a shock if this comes into play tonight. Even if this is not the case, Tatum is the best rebounder on the roster and has comfortably delivered with 16 and 14 rebounds in the opening two games. Expect Tatum to be at the epicenter of this effort and tally at least 11 rebounds for the third straight game.
Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (-105)
It has been evident that this Knicks offense funnels through Jalen Brunson for quite some time, but this has been taken up a notch in this playoff setting. His usage rate has increased from 29.5% in the regular season to 33.0% in the playoffs after leading the NBA in usage rate at 36.4% last postseason. The Villanova product is still a score-first player, but Boston has done a decent job forcing the ball out of his hands and making others beat them for stretches.
Across the regular season, Brunson averaged 7.3 assists per game and tallied over 6.5 assists in 37 of the 65 games he has played. In the postseason, he is averaging 7.6 assists per game and has tallied over 6.5 assists in seven of the eight games. He has notched as many as 11 assists in a game during this postseason run and is averaging 12.9 potential assists throughout the playoffs.
Even with the 2-0 series lead, the Knicks have not shot the ball well collectively. They connected on 42.5% of their shots from the field in Game 1, then 43.0% from the field as well as 29.0% from beyond the three-point arc in Game 2. The home crowd will be behind them in this game, which should improve the outlook for the supporting cast. Boston will continue to look to force the ball out of Brunson’s hands and ask anyone else to beat them. Count on the scrappy guard to manipulate the defense effectively and generate good looks for the rest of the roster. Getting -105 odds is great value, so look for him to record over 6.5 assists for the eighth time in the first nine playoff games.
