The final series of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs’ second round begins Wednesday night as the Dallas Stars battle the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets.
Honestly, it’s surprising both of these teams are even here to begin with — each side narrowly escaped their respective first-round matchups in seven games, and while both squads have their respective weaknesses, this series should provide plenty of competitive hockey between Stanley Cup contenders. This one could very well go a full seven games, though both Winnipeg and Dallas look to avoid another long and grueling series ahead of a potential Western Conference Final berth.
Here’s a detailed look at Jets vs. Stars, including a series prediction and top pick on DraftKings Sportsbook before Game 1’s puck drop at 9:30 p.m. EST tonight.
Jets vs. Stars series preview
Winnipeg Jets
Whether due to the Presidents’ Trophy curse or the franchise’s tendency to collapse in the postseason, disaster nearly struck the Jets in round one. After handily taking the first two home games against the St. Louis Blues, Winnipeg dropped all three road contests in blowout fashion during the best-of-seven series before scraping by with a double-overtime win in Game 7. Trailing 3-2 with their season on life support, Cole Perfetti scored to force OT1 with just 1.6 seconds remaining.
Thanks to the last-second miracle, the hockey gods might finally shine their favor on this Winnipeg lineup. However, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck must shatter his own playoff curse if the team hopes to hoist the Cup. After only allowing four goals through his first two playoff games, the Vezina Trophy candidate let an eye-popping 16 goals slip past across three road losses. He held his own in Games 5 and 7 as Winnipeg’s offense provided enough support to win the series, but Hellebuyck’s struggles remain the NHL’s worst-kept secret. With an .830 SV% and a 3.85 GAA, his playoff woes of the last couple seasons linger. He looks nothing like his regular-season self who dominated teams as the NHL’s top netminder to earn a Hart Memorial Trophy nomination.
If Hellebuyck’s shaky postseason form continues, the Jets’ skaters must deliver night in and night out to keep their season alive. With 21 goals across their seven-game playoff sample, they’re matching the scoring pace of the Stars’ offense, a somewhat encouraging sign. Kyle Connor leads the team with 12 playoff points, tying him for second among all postseason skaters. First-liner Mark Scheifele and third-liner Mason Appleton have each pitched in six points of their own, while Perfetti and defenseman Neal Pionk each have five. In short, there’s plenty of top-end production to go around.
Dallas Stars
Down in Texas, the Stars weathered their own seven-game war of attrition with the Colorado Avalanche in what might have been a Stanley Cup-caliber series in its own right. Dallas entered the postseason on a seven-game losing streak and got blown out of the water in their own arena to start their playoff run. Missing their top defenseman who makes the entire team click, Miro Heiskanen, as well as leading goalscorer Jason Robertson, the Stars proved the power of friendship — and revenge — prevails.
Facing growing criticism from fans on social media and analysts alike, trade-deadline acquisition Mikko Rantanen exploded for not one, but two four-point periods in Dallas’ last couple of games. The team stared down an 0-2 deficit entering the third period of Game 7 before Rantanen scored two gargantuan goals to knot the score, delivered the go-ahead assist, then finished the job on his former team with an empty-netter to complete a series-clinching hat trick… all in the span of 13 minutes. Aside from their superstar’s 12 playoff points, the rest of Dallas’ top contributors include a pair of seven-point skaters in Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz, plus five points from Thomas Harley.
The Stars’ offense may have produced in a feast-or-famine fashion over the first round with four games of four-plus goals and another three with two or fewer, but there’s no lack of consistency from their netminder. Jake Oettinger’s .911 SV% ranks third among starting goaltenders still in the playoff picture, and his 2.84 GAA really doesn’t paint the whole picture of how great he’s been while playing behind a defense missing its top talent. If not for Otter’s standout play against Nathan MacKinnon and the Avs, the Stars wouldn’t even be here.
Keys to the Series
As mentioned earlier, Hellebuyck’s consistency takes a massive hit in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The same can’t be said for Oettinger over this season’s postseason sample. Dallas maintains an advantage in net heading into Game 1 of this affair, but the story can certainly change if Hellebuyck regains his form. He may be hard-pressed to do so, though. He’s let quite a few shots sneak past his glove hand in the upper corner, a spot which a couple of Dallas’ skaters love to target. Hellebuyck has never been more vulnerable — the Stars just have to take advantage.
Now, our regularly-scheduled special-teams comparison. In round one, Winnipeg’s power play produced five goals on 22 chances to the tune of a 22.7 PP%. They face a Dallas penalty kill which ranks second among remaining playoff teams with an 86.4 PK%, allowing just three goals on 22 opposing power plays. Conversely, the Stars’ power play hit at a 30.4% rate in the first round with seven goals on 23 opportunities, also the postseason field’s second-best mark. They take on a Jets penalty kill which falls middle-of-the-pack with a 76.9 PK%, having allowed six goals across 26 opportunities. Dallas sees a slight edge here, though the sample sizes aren’t particularly large.
While every player nurses various bumps and bruises by the time the Stanley Cup Playoffs roll around, both teams face their fair share of injuries. Between Scheifele and defensemen Josh Morrissey and Logan Stanley, three of the Jets’ top talents are game-time decisions for Game 1. Scheifele seems likely to play, though none of the injuries sound particularly serious. As for Dallas, Heiskanen hasn’t played since January 28 after undergoing knee surgery. He’s day-to-day, but the star’s return date remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Robertson is a game-time decision for Game 1, too.
Jets vs. Stars series prediction, pick
Entering Game 1 of this Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup, the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook favor the Dallas Stars to win the series at -170, while the Winnipeg Jets slot in as a +140 underdog to advance past the second round. It’s a notable difference compared to the first round, in which the Stars fell to underdog status and the Jets were favored to emerge with a series win.
DraftKings Sportsbook’s public betting splits indicate an extremely heavy lean in Dallas’ favor. Among all bets placed on DKSB, 76% of series winner wagers are on the Stars, as is a massive 93% of the total handle. The public very clearly likes Dallas to win this series, which makes some sense given the relatively easier second-round matchup coming off a seven-game gauntlet against the Avalanche.
It’s worth noting Winnipeg does hold home-ice advantage, which bodes well for Hellebuyck given his better play at Canada Life Centre, but it’s very difficult to trust him given his documented struggles. If he shows up, this series will be competitive. If not, well, good luck. Considering how the Stars survived their injuries to bounce a Stanley Cup-caliber opponent last time around, they certainly have what it takes to take control of this series and crash-land the Jets’ championship hopes. The longer this series goes, the healthier Dallas becomes — if they return Robertson and Heiskanen to the ice, this one might be over quickly.
