Given how successful they’ve been in Spanish football over the last decade, it’s somewhat surprising that Barcelona hasn’t been to a Champions League final since 2015, when it beat Italian side Juventus, 3-1. That Blaugrana side was headlined by arguably the most famous attacking trio in football history — Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Luis Suárez — who all now play outside of Europe. A lot of time has passed.
But Barça has been dominant this season, picking up 25 wins from 34 matches in La Liga, winning the Supercopa de España and the Copa del Rey, and scoring nine more goals than any other squad in the Champions League. There’s a reason why the two favorites to win the Ballon d’Or in October — Raphinha and Lamine Yamal — both wear the red and blue.
Inter hasn’t had a bad season either, though. In fact, the Nerrazzuri were in line for a possible treble before a shocking 3-0 defeat to their crosstown rivals knocked them out of the Coppa Italia in the semifinals on April 23 and a setback in the league to Roma four days later put them behind Napoli in the race for the Scudetto. It was only two seasons ago that they made a Champions League final of their own, when they fell 1-0 to treble-winning Manchester City.
Barcelona is a -140 favorite to reach the final at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Inter at +110. Barça is +135 to win the second-leg tie in regular time, with the Nerrazzurri at +180, while a draw is +280.
FC Barcelona at Inter Milan prediction, pick
There’s almost no way to exaggerate how exciting the first leg was. I actually only turned on the match in the 37th minute, at which point I had already missed three incredible goals. Marcus Thuram opened the scoring in the first minute with an acrobatic back-heel flick, making history as part of the first father-son duo to score against Barcelona in the Champions League knockout phases after his father, Lilian, netted against them with Monaco in 1994. Denzel Dumfries then smashed home a leaping volley to make it 2-0 in the 21st minute before 17-year-old Lamine Yamal became the youngest goal scorer in UCL semifinal history with a wonderful solo effort three minutes later.
The Catalans didn’t even wait until halftime to equalize, as some beautiful attacking play found Ferrán Torres in front of the net for a tap-in. Then, after the break, Dumfries got his second with a header off of a set piece — his second career brace and first in the Champions League — and Raphinha had one of the greatest own goals ever.
As is typical for a match between these two teams, there was controversy. Nearly three years after Dumfries was not called for a hand-ball in the 2022 group stage — drawing the ire of Barça supporters — Inter’s Henrikh Mkhitaryan was ruled offsides by just a few inches on a would-be go-ahead goal in the 75th minute. To worry Barcelona fans even more, the same VAR official who didn’t call Dumfries on the hand-ball, Pol Van Boekel, is in charge of the match today. So whichever team advances to the final tomorrow, it might not happen without controversy.
San Siro has historically been a fortress for the Nerrazzurri, as among La Liga sides, only Real Madrid has beaten them at home in the 21st Century, and this season, too, Inter has been pretty solid at home. It has only lost three matches on friendly turf all season and drawn an additional four, but two of those results have come in its last three matches, including that 3-0 loss to AC Milan in the domestic cup semifinals, so their recent form isn’t great. Barcelona has lost thrice and drawn four times on the road, including in the second leg to Borussia Dortmund in the quarterfinals.
But while the Blaugrana would’ve clearly preferred to win at home, they should feel confident headed into Tuesday’s tie. They were clearly the better side, controlling 71% of the possession, firing 19 shots to Inter’s seven, and taking 341 touches in the attacking third to Inter’s 65. Yann Sommer was downright heroic in the first leg, making seven saves, and the own goal he was charged with was clearly more of a Raphinha banger than a mistake by the veteran shot-stopper. Wojciech Szczęsny finished save-less in a game he faced a shot on target for just the second time in a Barcelona kit, something that’s unlikely to happen again.
The X-factor is the strikers. Robert Lewandowski, arguably the greatest number nine of his generation and the leading scorer in La Liga this season, is healthy for this leg, even if he’ll likely come off the bench behind Ferrán. Lautaro Martínez, meanwhile, had to get substituted off at halftime in the first leg with a muscular injury and his participation on Tuesday is in doubt.
Inter has had a great season and the game will be close, but the inevitable Barcelona will make the Champions League final again.
