It is impossible not to be disappointed by being sent home in Game 7 of the playoffs with the home crowd behind you. But the Houston Rockets should be hanging their heads high on what was a significant stride forward this season and an even brighter long-term future.
The Rockets returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, improved from the 11th seed in the West last year to the 2nd seed this season, and finished in the top eight in the league in offensive, defensive, and net rating. Houston did an excellent job collecting young talent, laid the foundation with some key veteran presences in place, and now has a sample size of playoff basketball to evaluate which players are true foundational pieces.
Who are the Rockets’ Foundational Pieces?
Alperen Sengun was the lone member of this Rockets team to earn an All-Star appearance this season. He averaged 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists across the regular season and has been a key part of the Houston offense. Sengun has some limitations athletically, and his arc-type of player has the potential to be exposed in a playoff setting. Domantas Sabonis is a clear example I would point to as a player who puts up monstrous numbers and serves as the hub of the offense, but falls short under the bright lights of the postseason. Nikola Jokic is an example of a player so gifted offensively that it is worth putting up with some defensive shortcomings, and having the right players surrounding him, with Aaron Gordon continuing to be more of an unsung hero than he is, makes it possible to cover up for this.
Where Sengun fell on this scale was still up for debate, but Rockets fans should be incredibly encouraged by his playoff performance. The 22-year-old masterfully picked apart the Warriors’ defense in the halfcourt for stretches and averaged 20.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists throughout the seven-game series. He proved capable of scaling up his offensive role when the team needed and he was necessary in the three wins Houston produced. While he still leaves some to be desired defensively, he competes on this side of the floor and is easily hidden among their significant number of high-level wing defenders. Sengun agreed to a five-year, $185 million contract extension shortly before the season, which will kick in next year.
Amen Thompson was selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft and is arguably the biggest winner on this Rockets roster from the playoffs. The 22-year-old is still raw in his skillset, but he is in the top one percent of athletes, even in comparison to his NBA peers. Thompson averaged 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game while performing as the game-changing defensive talent he is on the defensive end. The days are numbered until Thompson begins to be mentioned in the mix for the single best defender in the NBA. His shooting continues to be a work in progress, with him shooting just 27.5% from beyond the three-point arc on 1.3 perimeter shots per game across the regular season. This comes after he shot 13.8% from beyond the three-point arc as a rookie.
Thompson stepped up in a major way in the playoffs. He averaged 15.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game across the seven-game series. While his skillset needs to be refined, there is a competitiveness and fearlessness in his game that is impossible to ignore and worth betting on moving forward. There is a real chance Thompson ends up the best player out of this Rockets’ young core, and Houston should be operating with this as a possibility moving forward.
Jalen Green is where the conversation starts to get difficult. There is no denying the talent level the former second overall pick possesses. But the massive range of when he is at his best and when he is at his worst is maddening from an organizational standpoint. This was on full display in this series with Green dropping 38 points in Game 2 of this series and looking like a face of the franchise-level talent. However, he was held to 12 points or fewer in the six other games of the series. Perhaps even more concerning, there was some regression in his decision-making this year. Beyond just the inefficiency as a shooter, Green had several misreads where he should have hit Sengun on the roll in this series, and was bothered by Golden State’s defense. He shot just 37.2% from the field overall.
With all this said, the top-end flashes that Green still shows make him impossible to fully give up on. Thompson’s continued emergence complicates this question as Houston must weigh whether some of their overlapping skill sets limit the growth of the other. If Green is in Thompson’s way, and this is a fair perspective to take away from the series, the Rockets should at least explore what he can get in a trade return. The stretches he has where everything is clicking, and Green still only being 23 years old, should prevent any overreactions, but this feels a more pressing crossroads than ever.
The Other Young Talent
Depth is important, but it is top-end talent that produces results in a playoff setting. Houston is loaded with young talent that did not get a chance to showcase what they can do because of the loaded roster. Reed Sheppard was selected with the third overall pick in last year’s draft and very well could have been in the Rookie of the Year conversation if he were on another team. Cam Whitmore is another example of a highly regarded young talent who would see a much more extended run if he were on another team.
It also should not be brushed over the impact of Jabari Smith in this playoff series. The former third overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft outperformed what his stats showed in this playoff series, making plenty of timely plays for this Rockets team. While his ceiling is likely lower than some of the names mentioned in the first group, there should be increased confidence in him being capable of scaling up or down his offensive role depending on the context of players around him. Tari Eason also continues to show some nice flashes and would certainly be in line for a larger role on plenty of other teams.
Houston also has a loaded chest full of draft picks that may serve them better as trade assets than adding talent at this stage in the organizational arc. The Rockets should not be expected to be in the running for a top pick anytime in the near future based on the talent they now have. They have up to five tradeable first-round picks, including one that belongs to the Phoenix Suns, which could prove to be especially valuable in the coming weeks.
The Veterans
One area where Houston deserves a ton of credit for in their rebuild is surrounding the young talent with the proper veterans. This step is overlooked by organizations often, but Houston stepped up to the table, handing out some significant contracts to players like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks as well as trading for Steven Adams. While the direct market value could be perceived as an overpay, VanVleet surely showed up when it mattered in this series and helped set the tone for the Rockets.
VanVleet has a $44.9 million club option this summer, which is a tough decision to make. He is a pretty seamless fit for what they need, but this is a large dollar amount to commit to. Dillon Brooks is still under contract for two more seasons, while Steven Adams will be an unrestricted free agent.
What is Next for the Rockets?
The Rockets have gone about their rebuild the right way, allowing their young talent to grow at the proper rate. This team needed to see how it stands up to the bright lights of the NBA playoffs and build up some postseason scars of their own.
But the time to act is now, and Houston should be right in the mix for just about every notable superstar rumor sure to occur this summer. Kevin Durant feels nearly certain to be traded, and Houston’s possession of their 2027 first-round pick could be particularly advantageous.
The future of Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee also seems less certain than ever before. The Achilles tear to Damian Lillard may have sealed this fate, with Lillard already 34 years old and likely to miss all of next season. There continue to be reports of Boston possibly needing to break up some of their key pieces due to the salary cap implications, while Zion Williamson and Trae Young are two other names to keep an eye on.
Houston needs to find a player who can be “the guy” in crunch time. This was the biggest concern all season and will continue to be a hurdle impossible to clear in the postseason moving forward. The window to win never stays open as long as teams expect, and it is in Houston’s best interest to act now.
The next few weeks should be spent evaluating which players they fully view as foundational pieces, as well as which players they are prioritizing in a trade. But if there is not a significant trade made that consolidates the group of young talents they have in exchange for a win-now star, this offseason should be looked at as a failure for Houston. The pathway through the West is not getting easier moving forward, and they have all the assets to make it happen. Expect the Rockets to be quite active in the trade rumors all summer, and for the roster that is put together on opening day next year to be looked at as a legitimate title threat.
