The NBA playoffs continue with two games of action across today’s Mother’s Day slate. Starting at 3:30 p.m. ET, the Denver Nuggets will host the Oklahoma City Thunder with the 2023 NBA Champions holding a 2-1 series advantage. Then, at 8:00 pm. ET, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be looking to even up their series against the Indiana Pacers after dropping the opening two matchups in front of their home crowd. Today’s game will be played in Indiana, with Cleveland returning to full strength in the previous game following a few notable injuries.
While the number of games is slimming down, there is still plenty of action on the table and plenty of different ways to get involved with DraftKings Sportsbook and Daily Fantasy Sports. This article will look at the top DFS value plays ahead of the pair of playoff matchups.
While these are not names that will likely lead your squad in DFS production, look for these names to outperform their price point and provide some flexibility to get more stars into your lineup.
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SF Michael Porter Jr, Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $4,500
$4,500 is on the higher side of what I typically target in the value section, but this is a straight-up bargain for Michael Porter Jr.’s production. Players like Andrew Nembhard ($5,900), Aaron Nesmith ($5,400), Christian Braun ($5,300), Max Strus ($5,100), Ty Jerome ($5,000), and Alex Caruso ($4,600) are each priced higher despite a clear pathway to Porter Jr. outperforming each.
While the 26-year-old is battling a notable shoulder injury, it is in his non-shooting shoulder, and he is continuing to find ways to overcome it. Porter Jr is coming off his best game of the playoffs, dropping 21 points and pulling in eight rebounds in the previous game. He tallied 34.5 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring after averaging 31.5 fantasy points per game on the season.
He will not be the 100% version of himself until after the offseason, but there are still plenty of opportunities for the Missouri product. He has tallied 15+ points in five of the postseason games and attempted 10+ FGA and 6+ 3PA in three of the past four games. Porter Jr. is an effective catch-and-shoot option, and Nikola Jokic makes life easy for him. Expect him to find his spots and to capitalize on Jokic’s high-level playmaking. Porter Jr. also shot the ball better at home this season, connecting on 40.3% of his three-pointers in Denver compared to 38.6% on the road.
Count on the Nuggets’ forward to build off his strong performance in the previous matchup and fill his necessary role on this Nuggets team. Denver has a chance to take control of the series by taking a 3-1 series lead and will need Porter Jr’s production to do so. I like his chances of outperforming his $4,500 price point and continuing to be relied on as a key part of the Nuggets’ attack tonight.
SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, $4,100
Tyrese Haliburton ($8,800) will continue to have his ups and downs and is coming off a four-point, five-assist, and 12.0 fantasy point stinker in Game 3. While he is due for a bit of a bounceback, Bennedict Mathurin helped step up during Haliburton’s struggles, scoring 23 points and producing 26.8 fantasy points in the previous game. Mathurin is averaging 26.7 fantasy points based on DraftKings DFS scoring on the season and is producing 24.0 points per game across the past 10 days.
While Indiana should feel solid about their 2-1 series lead, Cleveland has momentum on their side and looked much more dangerous in Game 3 with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley returning to the floor. Mathurin still made his impact felt against this full-strength team and is coming off a career-high in playoff minutes in Game 3. He plays with a physicality and toughness that is necessary in these types of playoff matchups. The Arizona product picked up a technical foul in the previous game after jawing with D’Andre Hunter, with this type of edge largely missing outside of Mathurin on this Pacers team.
Cleveland has a strong interior defense, but both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland can have their struggles guarding on the perimeter. Garland is especially vulnerable with the toe injury he is battling and will likely be tasked with matching up with Mathurin in this game. Per NBA Tracking data, Mathurin scored five of his points in the previous game with Garland as his primary defender, despite this being just 3.7 partial possessions and 0:46 of matchup minutes.
Look for Mathurin’s self-creation and perimeter shooting to continue to be necessary for the success of this Pacers team. He has averaged 1.6 more points and 1.1 more rebounds per game when playing at home this season, and the Indiana faithful are set to be behind him tonight. Expect a performance at least in the range of his season averages of 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists as Mathurin outperforms his $4,100 price point.
PG/SG Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, $3,400
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which can make them hard to evaluate from a value perspective. However, the youthful team looked to find something in Game 3 by scaling up Cason Wallace’s minutes with him as Jamal Murray’s primary defender. While Lu Dort took first dibs at this opportunity in the series, Wallace showed his worth and clocked 19:39 of game action after playing 11:52 in Game 2.
Across the regular season, Wallace averaged 8.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals, or 20.2 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring. The Kentucky product is cut from the exact cloth of three-and-D complementary guards that every team should wish for. There are plenty of teams, including ones still remaining in the playoffs, where Wallace would be penciled in for a huge role on the team. His minutes have been up-and-down due to the depth of this Oklahoma City team, but his success against Jamal Murray should change this. Across 9:52 matchup minutes and 47.9 partial possessions as Murray’s primary defender, the Denver guard has been limited to just eight points while shooting 33.3% from the field.
This defensive impact should open the door for opportunity, but Wallace is plenty capable of delivering offensively as well. He is a 38.9% career three-point shooter and is more capable off the dribble than he sometimes gets to showcase. With so much defensive attention set to be on the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, look for Wallace to benefit from some open three-point opportunities.
He likely will not make or break your overall result, but if you are searching for a low-cost player with upside to fit more big names in your lineup, Cason Wallace is worth a swing. Expect his level of opportunity on the floor to be expanded today, and don’t be surprised if it results in a career-best playoff performance.
