The Cavaliers and Pacers begin their second round series in Cleveland on Sunday evening. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cavaliers are favored by 8.5 points and this game carries a total of 229.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 1 between the the Cavaliers and the Pacers, and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers preview, prediction
The Cavaliers and Pacers both were impressive in their first round series wins. Cleveland swept the Heat in dominating fashion, winning each game by an average 30.5 PPG, which is an NBA record +122 point differential for a playoff series. Notably, the Cavaliers did all this damage with Darius Garland (toe) missing the final two games against Miami. As for the Pacers, they defeated the Bucks in five games, and two of these victories were by at least 19 points.
The Cavaliers finished atop the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record in the regular season, but the Pacers were one of the only teams to have a winning record against Cleveland, going 3-1 in the four matchups between these two clubs. However, this record is deceiving. One of those wins was the meaningless regular season finale in which both the Cavaliers and Pacers rested all their key players. Furthermore, another one of these victories for Indiana came just a few days before the regular season’s conclusion and that was another game in which Cleveland rested all their starters outside of Jarrett Allen. So, in the two matchups that the Cavaliers and Pacers both had their regular starters, these teams split the series at one win apiece. Both of these games were decided by double digits.
Indiana is at full strength to begin this second round series against Cleveland on Sunday, but Garland is in danger of missing his third game in a row for the Cavaliers; the guard is listed as questionable. Garland practiced Friday, but sat out practice Saturday, so it’s difficult to guess if he will play in Game 1. While Garland is an important piece for Cleveland, they flourished in the first round with him inactive, winning the two games Garland missed by a whopping 46 points. The Cavaliers are 6-3 with Garland inactive this season and they are one of the best teams in the NBA regardless if he suits up, as Ty Jerome is one of the best bench players in the league and he thrives when Garland is out. With the guard sidelined this season, Jerome is leading Cleveland with 18.2 points and 4.5 assists per game.
All-in, this deep Cavaliers team that leads the NBA in offensive rating is very difficult to beat, especially on their home floor. This Pacers defense ranks 14th in rating this season is in store for a challenging test. For the Pacers to pull off the Game 1 upset in Cleveland on Sunday, Indiana needs to somehow slow down the Cavaliers scoring and both Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam need to have great offensive performances, as keeping up with Cleveland’s offense will be very difficult if these top two players for Indiana underachieve.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers pick, best bet
The Cavaliers have been outstanding at home this season with a 36-7 record and they should take care of business in Game 1 against the Pacers no matter if Garland plays or not. Not only should they win, Cleveland needs to backed to cover this 8.5-point spread on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cavaliers are 51-34-1 ATS this season, which is the second-best ATS record in the NBA, only trailing the Thunder. Conversely, on the road this season, Indiana is an average 22-21 and they are 20-23 ATS.
