The first game of the second round of the NBA playoffs will tip off today. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers will face off after both teams cruised through their opening series in just nine combined games.
Cleveland continues to carry a chip on their shoulder after a wildly successful regular season in which it cruised to the top seed in the East. They swept the Miami Heat in the opening round, which included a 55-point victory in Game 4, the fourth-largest margin of victory in NBA playoff history. Indiana had no trouble defeating the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, with Damian Lillard’s injury a factor. The Bucks also completely unraveled at the tail end, becoming the first team in NBA history to blow a seven-point lead with less than 40 seconds left to play, which ultimately ended their season.
The Cavaliers enter this series-opening matchup as eight-point favorites and -325 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +260 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 229.5 for this matchup.
Here are my favorite prop bets for the series opening matchup.
Pascal Siakam Over 29.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
Tyrese Haliburton will continue to be the headline talent of this Pacers team, but he carries with him a larger variance in his play than most teams would prefer in their star. Pascal Siakam has been a key part of combatting this, proving to be a consistent running mate with a strong case that he could be viewed as the Pacers’ best overall player this season. Across the regular season, the three-time All-Star averaged 20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. Haliburton stepped to the forefront of the production in the opening round, but Siakam still averaged 19.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in the opening five playoff games. He recorded over 29.5 combined PRA in three of these games.
Looking at today’s matchup, defending the power forward has been a weakness in the Cavaliers’ overall impressive defense all season. They allowed 23.5 points per game to the power forward position, which was the 10th-worst rate in the league. They also ranked 25th in rebounds allowed and 22nd in assists conceded to the position. Cleveland leans on their pair of big men down low, but athletic rim-running players like Siakam can cause some problems.
Across the three regular-season matchups between these two teams, Siakam averaged 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in just 32.6 minutes per game. He also shot 40% or worse from the field in two of these matchups and will see his minutes expanded in this playoff setting. Expect Cleveland’s priority to be limiting Haliburton’s offensive impact, and for Siakam to be tasked with scaling up his offensive role. Cleveland has been vulnerable against his position and players of his style, and expect Siakam to make a statement in the series opener. Look for him to record over 29.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists and have his fingerprints all over Game 1.
De’Andre Hunter Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+124)
Cleveland looked to solidify their outlook as a title contender by making a splash at the trade deadline. De’Andre Hunter was their biggest prize as the Cavaliers looked to upgrade their perimeter defense with opposing wing stars in mind. Hunter has been a solid addition thus far, averaging 14.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists across the 27 regular-season games he spent in Cleveland. He shot 42.6% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.2 perimeter attempts per game. For his career, he is a 37.3% three-point shooter.
One notable area to keep an eye on in this series matchup is Indiana’s ability to defend the perimeter. They do an excellent job chasing opponents off the three-point line and funneling opposing offense into the paint, where Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen use their size to clean things up. Since the All-Star break, Indiana has limited opponents to the fourth-worst three-point percentage and the fourth-fewest three-point attempts.
Hunter struggled in his Cavaliers’ playoff debut, being held scoreless and failing to attempt a three-pointer in the opening game. He then shot 8-for-16 from beyond the three-point arc in the next three games, recording over 1.5 three-point makes in each. This 50% three-point rate is unsustainable, and Hunter will have a much more difficult time finding perimeter shots against this Pacers team compared to the lifeless Miami quad the team cruised past. He will still be a key part of this series, but expect the defensive end to be his greatest impact and for the Pacers’ three-point defense to cause a bit of a wake-up call in the opening game. I am taking a risk on the +124 odds and backing the Pacers’ three-point defense to win the battle today. Getting 1.5 is a comfortable cushion, and expect Hunter’s shot volume to be limited.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 Assists (+114)
After a slow start to the regular season, Tyrese Haliburton returned to his All-NBA guard level of play in the second half of the season. Before the All-Star break, Haliburton averaged 17.6 points and 8.5 assists per game. Since this point, these numbers increased to 20.6 points and 11.0 assists per game over the final 21 matchups of the season he played. He carried this effort into the postseason, averaging an impressive 11.6 assists per game in the opening round, recording double-digit assists in four of the five games. Per NBA tracking data, he is generating 17.0 potential assists per game thus far in the playoffs.
The high game total of 229.5 is an indicator that there will be a lot of points scored, and Haliburton will continue to be looked at as the engine of this Pacers offense. Haliburton closed the regular season recording over 10.5 assists in 12 of the last 20 games and in three of the five opening round matchups. As Cleveland continues to make an effort to chase opponents off the three-point lines, expect Haliburton to have success attacking the basket and creating for others.
The 25-year-old is sure to have the ball in his hands the most and is the most trusted decision-maker with the ball on the team. Expect the opening matchup to have a bit of a feeling-out process from a scoring perspective, and for Haliuburton to make his impact felt as a passer. He is among the best playmakers in the NBA, and the Pacers’ guard can be counted on to record over 10.5 assists in the series opener today.
