Nikola Jokic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the conversation all season as both superstars competed for the MVP. Now, the two will face off in a best of seven series in the second round of the NBA playoffs.
Oklahoma City swept Memphis and has had over a week off, while the Nuggets defeated the Clippers in seven. As a result, Denver will have just one off day before beginning the second round.
Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction and best bet for this second round series between the Thunder and Nuggets.
Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
Nearly all NBA fans expected the Thunder to advance to the second round, but they weren’t sure who they’d play. After seven games, the Nuggets prevailed and will take on the league’s top team.
These teams played one another four times during the regular season with each winning two games apiece. Although the Thunder won 18 more games, these teams matched up well during the regular season.
Oklahoma City enters the second round series as the favorite, but Denver shouldn’t be overlooked. Jokic’s squad is coming off a dominant Game 7 win against the Clippers and has the momentum heading into the second round. Meanwhile, the Thunder have been waiting for their opponent for over a week.
Time off should absolutely play a role, at least in Game 1 on Monday, May 5. Some may consider this an advantage for the Thunder since they’ll be well-rested, but the Nuggets are a veteran team. They’ve played long series before and shouldn’t be exhausted.
Game 1 will be the fifth time these teams play each other this year. Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic have shined in all four meetings, and it’ll likely be the case in most of the second round games, too.
Oklahoma City has a lethal frontcourt in Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren that can attempt to slow down Jokic, but that’s not always possible. Alongside the two bigs are Jalen Williams and Lu Dort, who are tremendous perimeter defenders that dabble in the paint as well.
The Thunder have star power and depth, which makes them extremely difficult to compete with, especially in a best of seven. The Nuggets don’t have that level of star power or depth, but they’re still a 50-win team and have shown moments of dominance throughout the year.
All it takes is a tiny flame for the Nuggets to catch fire. That flame may have come in Game 7 against the Clippers. It could be enough to earn some victories for Denver, but it’s likely not enough to win the series.
Oklahoma City is simply too good and will win the series.
Thunder vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
Outright betting the series winner is foolish. It’s either -700 for the Thunder, which is not very profitable, or +500 for the Nuggets, which is too big of a risk.
Denver has the best player in the NBA on its roster, but Jokic is not enough to be confident in the team winning four games against Oklahoma City. Instead, there’s value in betting a correct score for the series.
The Nuggets have enough talent and momentum to win a couple games in the series, but it’s not enough to advance to the conference finals. The Thunder may be rusty in Game 1 and could drop an away game in Denver.
That’s two games in favor of the Nuggets, which leads to my best bet: Thunder to win the series 4-2 at +500. These are the fourth shortest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook with the Thunder winning 4-1, 4-0 and 4-3 ahead.
Predicting the Thunder to win in six games is the same value as the Nuggets winning the series outright. I’m far more confident in a 4-2 Thunder finish than the Nuggets winning the round.
Thunder to win the series 4-1 at +240 is also a solid pick but there’s less juice as this is the favorite correct score. I would stay away from Oklahoma City winning 4-0 or 4-3 as it seems unlikely that Denver gets swept or forces a Game 7.