Game 7s are where legacies are made … and sometimes broken. There are no greater moments in sports than a one-game winner-takes-all, and this is especially the case in this Clippers vs. Nuggets opening round series.
The first-round matchup has lived up to even the highest of expectations thus far. With a thrilling Aaron Gordon buzzer-beater, an overtime matchup and four of the six games being decided by six points or less, Game 7 has the makings of an all-time classic.
The Nuggets enter as a narrow 1.5-point favorite and hold -118 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the over/under set at 208.
While the legacy conversations are overdone in the NBA overall, there is no way around acknowledging that players are judged harsher when the lights are the brightest. Here are the five players with the most at stake based on the outcome and their play tonight.
5. Michael Porter Jr.
The Denver Nuggets are in an interesting place as a franchise. Their 2023 championship is not far in the rearview mirror, but plenty of the roster has already changed, and Michael Malone was fired with just three games remaining in the regular season.
When an organization has a top-five talent such as Nikola Jokic, it should be giving itself the best chance to win a championship as long as his prime exists. Michael Porter Jr. is in a precarious position with the offseason looming. While it could be beneficial for the Nuggets to move on from him, he has two years remaining on a five-year, $179.3 million contract.
The 26-year-old averaged 18.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game while shooting 39.5% from beyond the three-point arc in the regular season. Porter is averaging just 10.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game through the opening six games of the playoffs. He has been held to seven or fewer points in three games in this series, including just three points on four field goal attempts in 26:28 of game time in Game 1. Porter also scored just five points on five field goal attempts in 24:24 of game time in Game 6.
Given Porter’s contract and the Nuggets needing to maximize Jokic’s prime, the 6-foot-10 forward has a lot of pressure going into Game 7. His future with the team could become a major conversation this offseason if he doesn’t perform yet again.
Porter’s points prop is set at 10.5 for Game 7 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
4. Nikola Jokic
Speaking of the superstar, Jokic has proven who he is as a talent at this stage of his career. He is a three-time MVP, seven-time All-Star and one-time champion who is still in his prime. That said, there isn’t a way around acknowledging that Game 7 results stick to stars’ resume more than any other player on the floor.
Jokic is far from a point of concern with the Nuggets, but he was unable to lead this team to a victory in Game 7 of last year’s conference semi-finals against the Timberwolves. Having to deal with a late-season coach firing and some roster turnover isn’t easy, but it would still be a mark on his record if the Nuggets can escape the first round.
Home teams are 112-39 (.742) in Game 7s in NBA history, and Denver has one of the strongest home-court advantages in all of sports. Jokic will be the best player on the floor and can dominate the game almost single-handedly if he plays to his peak. But he has been bothered by Ivica Zubac more than in most matchups he has seen. All eyes are sure to be on Jokic in this Game 7 matchup.
Jokic’s combined points, rebounds and assists player prop is set at 50.5 for this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
3. Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray is one of the more difficult players to evaluate when looking at his place among the NBA’s most elite. He has never made an All-Star game and has battled some injury issues throughout his career. But he is a proven playoff riser who has increased his scoring output averages in five of his six playoff appearances while having his best moments in the most crucial matchups.
Murray already exploded for 43 points in Game 5 and has held up his end of the bargain thus far in this series. When the Nuggets’ offense is fully clicking, the two-man action between Jokic and Murray is one of the most difficult offenses to stop in the league. He has already inked a four-year, $207.8 million contract extension set to kick in next year that will pay out roughly $57.5 million in 2028-29.
If Murray continues to produce at the level he has shown in the postseason, there shouldn’t be any complaints. But if this proven playoff riser stops performing at the wrong time, the tone will begin to shift. Denver needs Murray to play like a premier perimeter creator tonight.
I am backing Murray to record over 2.5 made three-pointers in this matchup. You can read my full write-up on this here.
2. Kawhi Leonard
When discussing legacies, Kawhi Leonard may have the most difficult career arc to discuss. Peak-for-peak, there are very few players who have a case for even being in Leonard’s range. He is a two-time Finals MVP who carried the Toronto Raptors to a championship back in 2018-19. But this also is the last time he has finished a traditional season fully healthy. The only other time he has been active for a playoff run since this point was in the bubble during the 2019-20 season. Leonard played just two postseason games in each of the past two playoff runs before injuries sidelined him.
Los Angeles deserves a ton of credit for being patient and incredibly calculated in Leonard’s ramp-up process this season. Leonard played just 37 regular-season games, including very limited minutes when he first returned to the floor. But his on-court opportunities gradually increased and have resulted in Leonard looking the healthiest he has been in years.
Leonard is the caliber of talent that makes it worth putting up with these accommodations, but this begins to change when first-round exits are the result. This era of Clippers basketball is built around Leonard being capable of being the best player on a contender, so he must play like this tonight. This deep Clippers team did an excellent job staying afloat throughout the regular season, but it is Leonard’s job to be able to push them over the edge. It is now his time to do just this.
Leonard’s points prop is set at 24.5 for this Game 7 matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
1. James Harden
It has been a turbulent past few seasons for James Harden. Since the 2020-21 season, he has suited up for the Rockets, Nets, 76ers, and the Clippers, where he hopefully found a long-term home to finish his career. Harden deserves massive credit for this season, averaging 22.8 points, 8.7 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game while earning his 11th All-Star appearance. The former MVP deserves the bulk of the credit for keeping this Clippers team afloat amid Leonard’s uncertainty.
While they are sometimes overstated, Harden’s postseason demons cannot be fully ignored. He is a career 36% shooter from the floor in Game 7s and has connected on just 22% of his three-point attempts in these situations. In last year’s Game 6 loss to the Mavericks, Harden finished with 16 points and 13 assists on 5-of-16 from the floor and 0-of-6 from beyond the three-point arc. He also was held to nine points and seven assists on 3-of-11 from the field and 1-of-5 from beyond the three-point arc in the Game 7 blowout loss to the Celtics, while with the 76ers the year prior.
The Clippers are better equipped to sustain Harden’s ups and downs than most teams he has been on. But the self-proclaimed ‘system’ will continue to be the most ball-dominant player on the floor and the primary decision-maker in the Clippers’ offense. A championship ring would change the legacy of Harden more than any other active player, with this being the biggest missing accolade on an impressive Hall of Fame career. But any chance at this starts with Harden showing up in Game 7 tonight and beginning to change the postseason narratives surrounding him.
Harden’s combined points, rebounds and assists prop line is set at 35.5 for this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
