Buckle up for what has the potential to be an all-time NBA playoff game as the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets face off in Game 7 of the opening round of the playoffs.
This series has lived up to even the highest of expectations, but it all comes out to which team comes out on top tonight. We have seen one of the closest buzzer beaters ever recorded, an overtime matchup and four games decided by six points or less already in the first six outings. With a second-round matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder on the line, each of these teams will bring its best effort tonight.
The Denver Nuggets enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites and -118 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under for the matchup set at 208.
The Case for the Clippers:
The Clippers are the deeper and better defensive team. With six games already played, this depth could be a factor.
Ivica Zubac has a strong case for the best individual defense that Nikola Jokic has ever faced in a playoff setting, and he has been the anchor of a defense that ranked fourth in the NBA in opponents’ points per game across the regular season. Los Angeles has a variety of versatile lineup options it can call on, and has the clear coaching advantage in Ty Lue. Denver’s surprising decision to fire Michael Malone with just three games remaining in the regular season forces interim head coach David Adelman to make some huge decisions with the high stakes.
While Jokic still holds the crown as the best player on the floor, Kawhi Leonard has been at his best when the lights are the brightest. The two-time Finals MVP has won three consecutive elimination games entering tonight, averaging 33.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists while shooting 62.9% from the floor in these matchups. Leonard looks the healthiest he has been in years and if he gets on a tear, there is not much any opposing team can do about it.
The Case for the Nuggets:
Boasting one of the greatest home court advantages in all of sports, Denver will have the home crowd on its side and the best player on the floor in Jokic. Jamal Murray has proven to be a playoff riser, increasing his scoring averages in five of the six playoff runs he has been on and is fresh off a 43-point performance in Game 5. The two-man actions between Jokic and Murray is some of the most efficient offense in the NBA.
While some of the supporting cast looks different, the key pieces are still in place on this roster that won a championship just two seasons ago. Even with Zubac impressing on the defensive end against Jokic, the three-time MVP is still producing 25.3 points, 11.8 rebounds and 10 assists per game on 51/45/70 shooting splits.
There is also the shortcoming of James Harden in elimination matchups that must be noted. The former MVP is a career 36% shooter from the floor in Game 7’s connecting on just 22% of his three-point attempts. While the Clippers are better equipped to live through his ups and downs compared to most teams he has been on, Harden will be the most ball-dominant player on the floor. Los Angeles will need at least a solid performance from its star guard.
The Pick: Under 208, Nuggets ML (-118)
I am more passionate about the under, as this should be expected to be a grind-it-out game. The total has gone under this number in three of the six games thus far. There is a Game 7 intensity that will help slow down the pace with every possession, and Los Angeles will be especially intent on playing at its pace to keep the game slow.
With this said, we are at the stage of the playoffs where depth is not as large a factor, and it will be down to the stars to produce the result. Jokic knows what it takes to do exactly this and is coming off the best regular season of his career. There is a higher floor of expectation for what this Nuggets team will look like, while the Clippers have had their ups and downs this series and this season.
Home teams are 112-39 (.742) in Game 7s in NBA history, and Denver’s fans are sure to make their presence felt tonight. The Clippers showed impressive resolve by winning the Game 6 matchup to extend the series, but I am backing Jokic’s level of consistency and the championship pedigree he brings to the table over a Clippers team that has not done enough to answer their concerns entering this series.
