Kentucky Derby Preview & Picks
It’s been quite a campaign for the three-year-olds in 2025 and now it’s time to see who wins the grand prize in the 151st running of The Kentucky Derby. This is a competitive field and of course, there are stories surrounding each horse.
Let’s take a look at the complete field:
Citizen Bull: The last race was puzzling. He looked like a sure-fire contender in the SA Derby as his speed numbers were worth backing. I wasn’t interested before the draw and surely not interested now, as he’ll have to use a ton of gas early or get buried in the pack.
Neoquos: This horse likes to participate in the top three mutuel payoffs (WPS) but fades in races over seven furlongs. His numbers are not horrible, they are better than half this field, and he has a respectable trainer in Saffie Joseph. But, with all the speed in this race and that dreadful 2 post, I would pause on using him.
Final Gambit: His last race in the Jeff Ruby Steaks was impressive, unlike his previous three races. Although he hasn’t run on dirt, he appears to like the Churchill surface in his training this week. The way this race sets up, he may be pretty far back early in the race but should make up ground late.
American Promise: He had an excellent win in the Virginia Derby and the horse has wonderful breeding. I am looking at a regression here, however. With all that said, I can’t tell you how many times the coach, Mr. D Wayne Lukas, has done the unthinkable.
Admire Daytona: He finished second in a close race to Luxor Café last year, but Luxor Café has made monumental strides and Daytona has just made baby steps. I believe the baby steps will continue, but that’s most likely not enough.
Luxor Café: Is this another Forever Young, who was sensational in last year’s Derby? On paper, this son of American Pharoah appears capable of winning or being in the intermix, but we just never have a good enough intellect on the Japanese horses.
Journalism: This horse has done all his racing on the West Coast and in excellent fashion. He did regress in the Santa Anita Derby but still won the race with a solid speed number. Jockey Rispoli must be careful not to get him pinned inside and jeopardize his chances of a late run. Certainly, one of the top horses to beat.
Burnham Square: He is getting better each race and the numbers say he’ll fire another good one on Saturday. He has run well on three different tracks, which includes Churchill Downs. The big question for his come-from-behind style, does he get first run on Journalism, Sovereignty & other closers.
Flying Mohawk: He looks to be a turf horse and as of now has no dirt experience. His competition has been weaker than the rest, and he appears to be extremely slow.
East Avenue: This was the Derby Favorite after the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland last October, but something went terribly wrong and strangely enough, the trainer (Walsh) couldn’t pinpoint the issue. He ran much better in the Bluegrass but it remains to be see if the East Avenue of old will show up, or if he is simply not good enough.
Publisher: He’s getting better, but still doesn’t have a win to his resume. It’s been 92 years since a maiden won the Derby, and only a total of three have accomplished that feat. A piece of the overall pie is possible, and adding one of the top jockeys (Irad Ortiz) surely doesn’t hurt.
Tiztastic: To go along with tremendous breeding, this horse has been positively progressing over the last four races, but will still need to make some more strides to compete. A couple of things that are beneficial to him are: He’s raced twice at CD (last year) with a second and a third, plus ran second to Sovereignty and finished ahead of Sandman.
Rendered Judgement: This is an average horse, and while he has shown slight improvement, I don’t believe he belongs in this race. Trainer Kenny McPeek didn’t want to run, but the owners did. They likely have visions of him doing more than he is capable of.
Coal Battle: He has accomplished a lot since they put him on dirt in November of last year, and has won $1 million. But, he may have peaked in the Rebel. I do not see him as a win candidate, possibly underneath in Superfectas.
Sandman: He has eight races under his belt, which is plenty of experience, but he hasn’t performed well on the Churchill Downs surface in three previous starts. Although he shows slight improvement over his last four races, he might be a cut below the top performers.
Sovereignty: The last two he’s put together at Gulfstream Park (Fountain of Youth & Fla Derby) are exactly what you want heading into this one. He also has an easy win over the CD surface at 1 1/16 beating a few contenders that intend on running in this race. His speed numbers show that he’s ready for a big effort.
Chunk of Gold: This is a tough one to figure out. I believe he’s going to move up, but just how far and running at this distance shouldn’t be an issue. The Jockey (Jareth Loveberry) and Trainer (Ethan West) aren’t household names among the big boys, but I certainly wouldn’t fault anyone for using him in trifectas and superfectas.
Owen Almighty: I am definitely not interested here. The distance is too far and he is too slow for a race with tremendous speed and competition. The owners were going to pass and try the Pat Day Mile, or something shorter, and probably should have stuck with that plan.
Baeza: He’s now in the field after getting the defections needed and elite jockey Flavien Prat switches from Neoequos to ride him. Highly priced colt at $1.2 million that has lived up to the expectations.
My Selections:
Journalism – Win, Place & Show
Exacta and Trifecta Key – Journalism & Sovereignty with Journalism, Sovereignty, Burnham Square, Publisher, Final Gambit, East Avenue & Sandman
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Johnny Avello is an employee of DraftKings. Personal views on the races and strategies above do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in selecting their horses to wager upon. DraftKings employees may also deploy different strategies than what is recommended above. DraftKings employees do not have access to any non-public information.
