I think it’s safe to say that this series between the Knicks and the Pistons has been the most competitive of any in the first-round of the NBA Playoffs. Heck, no team has even won on its home court since New York pulled off a massive fourth quarter comeback in Game 1. The last three contests? All decided by three points or fewer. It’s been some very compelling basketball.
Do the Knicks have what it takes to close things out on Thursday night? Or will Cade Cunningham lead his squad to a pressure-packed Game 7? Let’s break it all down with odds and lines from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Knicks vs. Pistons prediction, preview
Would you like a brief statistical synopsis of how close this series has been? I swear, it only takes one figure to illustrate the point. Across five hard-fought games, the Knicks have outscored the Pistons by 0.1 points per 100 possessions. Folks, it doesn’t get more narrow than that. The cherry on top? Both teams also have an identical effective field goal rate in the postseason (50.8%). It’s hilarious. Well, to anyone who isn’t a New York or Detroit fan. That’s probably pretty stressful.
One area where there has been a little separation has been from beyond the three-point line. The Pistons weren’t exactly sharpshooters throughout the regular season, but Detroit has seen a notable downturn in its three-point efficiency over the opening five games of this series. To wit, the Pistons are only making 33.8% of their threes against the Knicks. Malik Beasley has been the face of this issue. After making more threes than any other player in the Eastern Conference during 2024-25 (319), Beasley has gone cold in the postseason, shooting 14-for-46 (30.4%). The aforementioned Cunningham has also been off from distance, 5-for-20 (25.0%), though he’s made up for that by averaging 25.4 points, 8.8 assists and 8.6 rebounds a night. If either can catch fire from beyond the arc on Thursday, it could easily swing the balance of Game 6.
The Knicks also have a path to victory through normalization. It’s all about Jalen Brunson. The All-Star had exceeded 30 points in every start of these playoffs heading into Game 5, yet he struggled in Tuesday’s loss, going 4-for-16 (25.0%) from the field for just 16 points. That includes being held to a single field goal and three points in the fourth quarter. In a series with margins for error this small, New York can not survive an underwhelming performance from their best player. Conversely, Detroit barely pulled out a win despite Brunson’s inability to make a shot. If he’s back to his normal self this evening, the Pistons might not have the firepower to keep pace.
Knicks vs. Pistons pick, best bet
The Knicks have never gelled like many had hoped they would this season, but their top-end talent remains too much to ignore — at least in the first-round of the playoffs. Could New York use more scoring punch off the bench? Undoubtedly. However, in a Game 6 setting with Tom Thibodeau calling the shots, it’s very likely we’ll simply see the Knicks push all their starters’ workloads around 40 minutes. That strategy might not work in the long run, yet it should be enough to take down a young Pistons squad playing in the NBA spotlight for the first time.
Best Bet: Cade Cunningham Over 3.5 Turnovers (-160)
Cunningham is handling a 32.0% usage rate in this series and averaging 5.8 turnovers per game. In fact, this prop has hit in all five contests so far.
Strong Lean: Knicks ML (+102)
Brunson gets back on track and his big scoring performance proves to be the difference.
