The Western Conference Finals begin Wednesday night, with the Timberwolves hosting the Mavericks for Game 1 of this best of seven. DraftKings is offering some huge Showdown contests for this playoff matchup and below, I dive into some of my favorite options for this Showdown slate.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Captain’s Picks
Anthony Edwards ($17,100)
Edwards should be oozing with confidence after knocking out the defending champion Nuggets on their home floor and he should shine in this Game 1 vs. Dallas. Edwards exceeded 60 DKFP in two of his four meetings with Dallas in the regular season and is amassing 50.1 DKFP per game this postseason with a 29.7% usage rate.
The Mavericks rank first in pace among the remaining playoff teams and they just had major issues slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during the second round. Edwards is a similar caliber scorer to Gilgeous-Alexander and he should expose Dallas for a huge fantasy score in Game 1.
Dereck Lively II ($8,100)
Lively is an intriguing option if electing to save at captain for this Showdown slate. While he comes off the bench, Lively II has seen the most minutes at center for Dallas this postseason, with 21.7 minutes per game and he closed out the second round in impressive fashion, contributing 29.3 DKFP per game in the final four tilts of the Mavericks’ series with the Thunder. Lively closed the game with Dallas’ starters over Daniel Gafford in all four of those contests and he led his team in plus/minus by a huge margin during this stretch at +16.5.
Competing against a Wolves team that starts two seven-footers in their frontcourt, Lively should continue to see plenty of work in this series and he is underpriced for his expected role.
FLEX Plays
Luka Doncic ($19,800)
Doncic is a matchup-proof player and attacking his safe floor in a flex spot is a wise choice for this Showdown slate. The Slovenian has scored over 50 DKFP in all but one of his 12 starts this postseason and he has eclipsed 60 DKFP six times. Doncic leads all the remaining players in the playoffs in minutes per game at 42.1 and he had no issues against Minnesota in the regular season, supplying 62.5 DKFP per game in two matchups.
The Mavericks are 4-point underdogs for this Game 1 on the DraftKings Sportsbook and when competing as an underdog this season, Doncic has been magnificent with 69 DKFP per game (26 games).
Mike Conley ($7,200)
Conley has had a great postseason, scoring at least 29 DKFP in seven of his nine starts and ranking second for the Wolves in plus/minus (9.6). The strong fantasy numbers have been a direct result of the veteran handling a larger workload. So far during these playoffs, Conley has received 32.4 minutes per game, after only logging 28.9 minutes per game in the regular season.
As an excellent perimeter defender, Conley should continue to see heavy volume against the Mavericks, in an attempt to slow down Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and is a terrific bargain at this reasonable price tag.
Naz Reid ($4,400)
Reid was very effective against Dallas in the regular season and is a steal at this low salary. Despite Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert being available for all these games, Reid has produced 29.4 DKFP per game in four matchups with the Mavericks this season, including a 43.5 DKFP outing back in December.
The Sixth Man of the Year is collecting 1.1 DKFP per minute this season and should be very active in this series vs. Dallas.
Fade
Kyrie Irving ($9,800)
Irving has really struggled to put up big numbers on the road this postseason and that trend should continue against the Wolves’ elite defense. The guard has scored under 40 DKFP in four of his six road starts during these playoffs and for the postseason, he is averaging a 21.6% usage rate, which is a significant drop from the 27.4% usage he handled during the regular season.
Irving is notably averaging 5.7 DKFP per game less when competing away from Dallas this season and he is very difficult to justify at this price point.
Outcome
The Wolves went 3-1 vs. the Mavericks in the regular season and should defend home court with a win on Wednesday. Dallas should struggle to slow down Edwards and Minnesota’s size inside should create plenty of problems for the Mavericks.
The Wolves are 33-11 at home this season and investing in them at -4 on the DraftKings Sportsbook is a sharp call. This postseason, Minnesota has been the best team ATS with a 8-3 record.
Final score: Timberwolves 110, Mavericks 100
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [100K to 1st] [DAL vs MIN]
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
