It’s Game 5 madness in the NBA on Tuesday, as four contests are scheduled for this evening on the hardcourt. Three of those are elimination games and things get started in Indiana at 6:00 p.m. ET with the Bucks fighting for their postseason lives.
Milwaukee comes into this tilt down 3-1 in the series and in absolutely abysmal spirts, as the team dropped Game 4 in incredibly lopsided fashion. Worse than that, the Bucks lost All-Star point guard Damian Lillard, as the veteran injured his Achilles a little over six minutes into the first half.
Can Milwaukee survive to play another day or will the Pacers move on in the NBA Playoffs? Let’s break down the game and the betting angles on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bucks at Pacers prediction, preview
It’s difficult to comprehend a team’s vibes. It’s even more difficult to make that feeling a tangible betting strategy. Still, from the outside looking in, it appears that the Bucks have been broken. It’s not even like Lillard was playing all that well in this series after returning from a blood clot in Game 2 — he shot a putrid 22.2% from the field in parts of three starts — but after a devastating torn Achilles in Game 4, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Milwaukee can pick itself up off the mat.
To be blunt, no one aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo has been able to do much of anything against the Pacers. Bobby Portis did manage a big double-double in Game 2, while Gary Trent Jr. carried the team to a Game 3 victory with a hot shooting performance, yet the team’s tertiary assets and play-makers have been very inconsistent. That’s really the only way to explain how the Bucks have a -8.3-point net rating despite Antetokounmpo averaging NBA postseason highs in points per contest (33.8) and rebounds per contest (14.3). The Greek Freak has been amazing. There’s no denying it. Yet even Antetokounmpo’s heroics can’t overcome this deficit alone.
Indiana has been flat-out breathtaking in an offensive capacity in this series, registering a league-high 3.00 assist to turnover ratio to go along with scoring 120.2 points per 100 possessions. It’s been an all-around team effort, as well, really showcasing the difference between the Pacers’ and the Bucks’ depth. Indiana has four different players averaging at least 15.0 points per contest in this series, while the team has received great three-point shooting from the likes of Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, with the latter hitting 52.4% of his attempts from distance.
Not to be too trendy, but this is literally the “100 humans against one gorilla” argument playing out in real time. Antetokounmpo has arguably been the most dominant and productive force in these playoffs, yet with no help, he’s drowning under the weight of the Pacers’ balanced attack.
Bucks at Pacers pick, best bet
Sometimes in the NBA postseason, you know the fate of a team even before they’ve been officially eliminated. That is how I currently feel about the Bucks. If not for a 37-point outburst from Gary Trent Jr. in Game 3, this series would already be over, and there aren’t any more reinforcements for Doc Rivers to call upon. Including the regular season, the Pacers have won three of their four home matchups against Milwaukee in 2024-25.
Tonight, they make it five of six and send the Bucks into what will be a very uncomfortable offseason.
Best Bet: Pacers -8 (-110)
Antetokounmpo can’t perform any better than he already has and the Bucks have still been outscored by 11.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor in this series.
Strong Lean: Giannis Antetokounmpo 47+ Points + Rebounds (-120)
Antetokounmpo has hit the over in three of his four postseason starts and owns a 36.5% usage rate in the playoffs.
