Did you know the origin of the word “Thursday” comes from the Norse language? “Day of Thor” was the initial translation. Would this factoid been more useful to me when Noah Syndergaard was still pitching? Yes. But here we are.
There’s five games on tonight’s featured MLB slate. Let’s dive in.
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PITCHER
Stud
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds, $10,400 – There’s not a lot to say about this spot. Glasnow has been otherworldly in his last four starts, pitching to a 1.29 ERA and a 1.43 FIP with a 38.2% strikeout rate. On the other side, we find the lowly Reds. Cincinnati has struggled to do much of anything in May, as evidenced by its league-worst 73 wRC+ in the month. I don’t expect that to suddenly change in a matchup with one of baseball’s best arms.
Value
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $7,300 – Steele pitched against this same Pirates team on Saturday and got absolutely destroyed, but considering the lack of talent on this slate, I’m willing to give him a second chance. Pittsburgh has been much better when facing LHPs than RHPs in 2024, yet overall the team ranks 27th in wOBA (.282) and wRC+ (79) so far in May. They’re not a matchup to fear. Plus, while injuries have limited Steele to just three starts this season, he remains the same guy that finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2023. I’ll side with track record on this one.
INFIELD
Stud
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics, $5,700 – The Astros own this slate’s highest implied team total. It isn’t hard to see why. Though Joey Estes ($7,000) pitched well on paper this past weekend in Seattle, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Heck, Estes allowed three barrels in just 12 batted ball events. That’s a staggering ratio. It’s not like Estes was tearing up Triple-A, either. The 22-year-old was rocking a 6.04 ERA across 28.1 innings of work. Altuve and the rest of Houston’s lineup should do some serious damage.
Stud
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, $4,500 – After a nightmarish start to the season, Lindor has been much better the last month. In fact, in the 100 plate appearances he’s taken since April 19, the switch-hitter is in possession of a .261 ISO and a 125 wRC+. He’ll get a chance to improve upon those numbers on Thursday in a matchup with Taijuan Walker ($6,300). The RHP has had his issues with LHBs in 2024, allowing those within the split to slash .368/.415/.579. Walker is also surrendering a barrel to 14.3% of the batters he’s faced — the highest mark of any qualified pitcher. Woof.
Value
Abraham Toro, Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, $3,800 – Toro has been at his best against LHPs in 2024, but the switch-hitter’s overall numbers are solid. In 162 plate appearances, Toro is slashing .287/.340/.440 with a 129 wRC+. That’s probably why he’s found a home as the A’s everyday leadoff guy. Toro should thrive in a matchup with Cristian Javier ($7,800), who continues to have his problems with LHBs. To wit, lefties have combined for a .414 wOBA off Javier so far this season.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds, $6,500 – There’s a reason that Nick Martinez ($7,600) moved to the bullpen. The veteran RHP posted a 6.86 ERA as a starter to begin 2024 — he’s best in small doses. Sure, Martinez will be pitching behind an opener on Thursday, but Ohtani will likely still get a couple cracks at the 33-year-old. The Ohtani who currently leads baseball by a wide margin in wOBA (.494) and wRC+ (212). That guy. He’s pretty good.
Value
Editor’s Note: Mets OF Brandon Nimmo was scratched from tonight’s game vs. the Phillies.
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, $4,400 – I’ll just come out and say it: Nimmo should be more expensive. Don’t let his batting average fool you, Nimmo is crushing the ball at the moment. The outfielder comes into Thursday’s action ranking in the 98th percentile in expected wOBA (.422), the 95th percentile of expected slugging (.554) and the 92nd percentile of average exit velocity (92.8). He’s another very potent LHB to throw into a stack against the aforementioned Walker.
Value
Joey Loperfido, Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics, $2,600 – It’s a small sample size, but Loperfido is hitting .323 in his 33 plate appearances at the MLB level. He’s also dirt cheap and left-handed. LHBs were the main cause of Estes’ woes in Triple-A prior to his call-up. In fact, lefties were hitting .340 off Estes, while the RHP was surrendering 2.38 home runs per nine within the split.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
