The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder will continue their second-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Wednesday with a critical Game 5 from Oklahoma City. The Mavericks and Thunder split the first four games evenly, with each team grabbing a crucial road win. Both teams will look to set up the chance to close out the series in Game 6 with a win Wednesday evening.
Luka Doncic is probable as he battles through a knee injury. Dallas is still without Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Maxi Kleber. Oklahoma City is clean on the injury front.
The Thunder are 4-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 213. Oklahoma City is -175 on the moneyline while Dallas is +145.
Mavericks vs. Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Thunder -4
This series has followed the same script as Dallas’ first-round matchup against the Clippers, but this is where I think we see a change. The Thunder have one of the best home records in the league, going 33-8 during the regular season and 3-1 in the playoffs. Oklahoma City is also the deeper team, and that depth should eventually create an advantage for the young squad. The Mavericks do have the experience with Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but their role players are playing over their heads right now and should eventually cool off. I like Oklahoma City to win Game 5 and grab a 3-2 lead in this series.
Over/Under: Under 213
This has been an interesting series when it comes to totals. Both games in Oklahoma City came close to this number, with Game 2 going over this line. Both games in Dallas went well under this line. The Thunder are 22-21-2 to the over as the home team while the Mavericks are 22-23-1 to the over on the road. I think both teams have figured each other out enough to make defensive adjustments, and eventually Dallas’ role players will cool off with their perimeter shooting. I’ll take the under to hit once again in Game 5.
