In the second matchup of today’s NBA Playoff slate, the Houston Rockets will be facing the Golden State Warriors. This is an important game for Alperen Sengun and company as they trail 2-1 in the series and will be looking to avoid the treacherous 3-1 series hole.
This is especially the case, having missed the opportunity to get the victory with Jimmy Butler sidelined in the previous game. Butler remains listed as questionable, but Golden State is optimistic he will make his return tonight and his status surely changes the outlook of this matchup in a significant way.
The Warriors enter as 34-point favorites and -180 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Houston holds +150 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at just 203.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Sengun prop bets ahead of Game 4.
Best Alperen Sengun Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Sengun’s props are listed at over/under 19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.5 made three-pointers and 35.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 Rebounds (-130)
The battle of the boards was a noteworthy storyline leading into this series matchup. Houston has controlled the rebounding battle all season and has comfortably outrebounded Golden State all series. This has not been enough to translate to victories, but Sengun is still a key part in establishing this.
Across the regular season, Sengun averaged 10.3 rebounds per game and tallied 10.5 rebounds on average in 33 games this season. He has reached this total in back-to-back games, including 16 rebounds in Game 2. He also averaged 11.2 rebounds per game against Golden State in the regular season.
One of the X-factors in the series has been Steven Adams, with Houston having success leaning on the double-big lineup dating back to the regular season. While Houston has still posted a +7.0 rating in the 18 minutes they experimented with it, they have been unable to punish the Warriors exactly as hoped. With Houston trailing in the series, the time has come to sacrifice a bit of the defense and rebounding to produce better on the offensive end.
Expect this to result in Sengun being responsible for serving as the primary rebounder throughout and filling up the stat sheet. Golden State is limited in its size outside of Draymond Green and prefers to play small-ball as much as possible. Kevon Looney has logged just 36 total minutes with Quenten Post receiving 64 across the opening three games. Count on Sengun to make the most of his size advantage and assert himself on the interior from start to finish. Look for him to record over 10.5 rebounds for the third straight game, and it may be taking a stab on the +120 alternate line for 12 boards or +180 alternate line for 13 rebounds.
Alperen Sengun to Over 0.5 Made Three-Pointers (+220)
Alperen Sengun will never be thought of as a three-point sniper and shot a career-worst 23.3% from beyond the three-point arc in the regular season. Over his four-year career, the Turkish big man has shot 27.2% from the perimeter while attempting 1.2 shots per game. He has shot as well as 33.3% from deep over a season.
However, Sengun has broken this out of his arsenal during this series. He hit two of four shots from beyond the three-point arc across the opening three games, cashing this prop in two of the matchups. This has been a bit of a weak spot for the Warriors’ defense, with them ranking 18th in opponent three-point percentage across the regular season. It has also become a priority for the Rockets’ offense to spread the floor and allow players like Jalen Green and Amen Thompson to attack the basket.
While Sengun is effective near the paint with the ball in his hands, he clogs up space without it. Green has especially had his ups and downs in this series, and expect it to be a priority tonight to give him room to work. Expect this to result in Sengun floating out to the perimeter for stretches where he will not receive much defensive attention.
It takes just one shot for this prop to cash, and getting +220 odds for him to accomplish what he has in two of the three previous games in this series is great value. I am taking a swing on Sengun repeating this with Houston set to leave it all on the table tonight.
