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How the public is betting Warriors vs. Rockets Game 4 on Monday 4/28/25

How the public is betting Warriors vs. Rockets Game 4 on Monday 4/28/25

Sports Betting Picks NBA DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

Published:

By: Alex Hunter

The Warriors and Rockets continue their first round series with Game 4 in Golden State on Monday. Currently, the Warriors lead the series 2-1.

Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 4 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Splits

Jimmy Butler (pelvis) is questionable, but after seeing the Warriors take care of business and beat the Rockets by 11 points in Game 3 without the veteran, most bettors are expecting Golden State to prevail again in Game 4, as 64% of the handle and 72% of the bets on the moneyline are on Golden State. However, it’s a different story for the spread, as 75% of the handle and 49% of the bets are on the Rockets +4. What this shows us is that while most expect the Warriors to win, the big bettors don’t have much faith in them covering, which is logical given Golden State’s track record this season. At home, the Warriors have been one of the most disappointing teams ATS with a 19-23-1 record.

For the total, 72% of the handle and 80% of the bets are backing over 202.5 points. While this is a low number, two of the first three games of this series have gone under 202.5 points and the defensive intensity should continue in Game 4. Both the Rockets and Warriors rank inside the top-seven in defensive rating this season, and fading the public here and taking the under does have merit, especially if you believe Butler will play. The wing did participate in the Warriors’ walkthrough this morning and with Butler on the floor this season, the Warriors have boasted an incredible 102.7 defensive rating. For some perspective, the Thunder led the league in defensive rating this season at 106.6.

Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:

  1. Alperen Sengun First Point Scorer (+400)
  2. Stephen Curry 25+ Points (-190)
  3. Brandin Podziemski 6+ Three-Pointers Made (+2000)
  4. Amen Thompson 4+ Assists (-180)
  5. Amen Thompson 25+ Points (+1700)

When it comes to first basket props for Game 4 between the Warriors and Rockets, Sengun is the best option, which is evident in this bet’s popularity. The center has impressively scored the first basket in 20 games this season, which is by far the best of any player in this game. The second-most belongs to Sengun’s teammate in Dillon Brooks, who has been the first scorer seven times this season. Sengun has scored the first basket in 25% of his starts this season and his odds should be shorter than +400 given his knack for being the first scorer.

Next we have Curry for 25+ points at -190. Curry just lit the Rockets up for 36 points in Game 3 and he has scored at least 25 points in six of his last eight starts. Plus, Curry is shooting 53% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc in this series. While this -190 price isn’t ideal, this bet does feel like a lock and eating the juice here makes sense. Golden State is a four-point favorite for Game 4 and in wins this season, Curry is averaging 27.1 PPG.

After a safe wager in Curry for 25+ points, the next most popular prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 4 is Podziemski for 6+ made three-pointers, which is the complete opposite of safe. The guard is only 4-for-16 on three-pointers this series and he is only averaging 1.6 made three-pointers per game this season. Podziemski has only hit 6+ three-pointers twice in 67 games this season and while the +2000 odds for this bet are obviously appealing, this an extremely longshot bet that isn’t worth considering.

The fourth- and fifth-most popular prop bets for Game 4 belong to Thompson. First is the wing for 4+ assists at a -180 price, which has a great chance to hit. Only once in his last 10 starts has Thompson not posted at least four assists and he has been the Rockets’ main playmaker in the playoffs, averaging a team-high 10.0 potential assists per game. Conversely, the fifth-most popular player prop is Thompson for 25+ points, which is extremely unlikely. Thompson hasn’t scored more than 11 points in this series and he hasn’t recorded 25+ points in 17 games. With all of Houston’s starters healthy and not on the injury report, there isn’t any logic to Thompson for 25+ points being popular and this is simply a wager to avoid for Game 4.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.