The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
The Field
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (formerly AT&T) is a full-field event that will feature 156 golfers. It’s the second-to-last warmup start on the schedule before the PGA Championship in two weeks and features a field headlined by world number one Scottie Scheffler and Texas resident Jordan Spieth. The defending champion is Taylor Pendrith, who won this event last season at 23-under par. The course (TPC Craig Ranch) will be the host for the fifth year in a row this season.
We don’t have a ton of course history to go off of, but we can look back at some of the past winners’ performances to give us a good indication of what to expect (from a winner). Overall, this has been an event that features low scoring and lots of birdies. Even with the course playing as a Par 71 last season, we still saw the winning score get to 23-under par.
The cut (top-65 and ties) will take place in its usual spot after Friday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch—McKinney, Texas
Par 71, 7,414 yards; Green: Bentgrass
TPC Craig Ranch was built back in 2004 by Tom Weiskopf and has signed on as host for the Byron Nelson up until 2025. The venue has also seen some action as a host for other professional Tours and acted as the stage for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship back in 2012, an event that saw a winning score of 16-under par. In its first two seasons hosting the Byron, the pros were helped by rain softening the course, and, as a result, we saw winning scores explode past 24 under in both runnings. The course was changed to a Par 71 for 2023 after the 500+ yard Par 5 12th hole was transformed into a 492-yard Par 4. It won’t make much of a difference for how the course plays long-term, but the winning score was a little bit higher in 2023 (-23) as a result, and the winner again hit -23 last season.
The venue now sets up as a traditional par 71, and like many Weiskopf designs, it has a nice blend of tougher stretches and easier scoring holes. Weiskopf also designed TPC Scottsdale, which plays around the same length as TPC Craig Ranch and has traditionally seen winners post 16 to 19 under par for their winning scores; so Craig Ranch, in many ways, can be seen as a slightly easier version of Scottsdale.
While there are shorter par 5s in play, and a couple of short par 4s, there are also seven par 4s now that measure in at over 450 yards. Looking at players with good efficiency stats between 450-500 yards is certainly worth your while, as is long approach proximity stats. With softer greens and an open design, GIR% tends to be higher than normal, making around-the-green play slightly less relevant (winners at Craig Ranch have gained the least amount of strokes around the green (on average)).
The routing of the course isn’t overly complex, as there aren’t many doglegs in play, and the venue does appear to have plenty of space just off the fairways in many spots. Players don’t necessarily have to be the most accurate or biggest hitters off the tee to have success here, and that has seemingly helped weaker OTT players in the past. We don’t have a ton of data to work off, but 2022 saw players able to set themselves up for big weeks on approach, with solid work off the tee.
KH Lee gained +7.0 strokes more on approach than off the tee in 2021 and was again far more positive in 2022 on approach than off the tee. In 2023, Jason Day’s stats provided a similar story as he gained 10.0 strokes ball-striking (6.4 strokes on approach) but only 1.0 stroke around the green. Pendrith was a bit of an anomaly last season as he gained over 4.0 strokes around the greens (and less than a stroke on approach) but still gained big off the tee.
You don’t necessarily need to be long at Craig Ranch, but if you want to get aggressive on the bigger tiered greens, a decent week off the tee is still somewhat mandatory (again, if we’re going off the past winner’s stats). This is a very driver-heavy course, but the bigger fairways do allow far more weaker off-the-tee players to thrive, so I’d hesitate to put too much emphasis on driving stats. Moreover, I’d look for players coming into Craig Ranch with solid ball-striking stats over their last few starts, with good long approach proximity stats from longer distances.
2025 Weather Outlook: There is some rain in the early forecast for this week, with some thunderstorms likely for Wednesday. Thursday and Friday seem decent for now, with highs in the 75-80°F range and lower chances of rain. We could see some showers or passing thunderstorms on the weekend (much like last week) that could stall play for a bit. The good news is that the wind isn’t expected to be overly dramatic, with the gusts on Thursday and Friday afternoon topping out around 10 mph. If the course does get some rain on Wednesday, I would expect it to be super soft for the early starters who will be playing in pretty solid conditions with the morning highs in the 65-70°F range. The Thursday AM range is likely the one to target for one-day lineups for the first round.
Last 5 Winners
**2024—Taylor Pendrith -23 (over Ben Kohles -22)
**2023—Jason Day -23 (over Si Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat)
2022—KH Lee -26 (over Jordan Spieth -25)
2021—KH Lee -25 (over Sam Burns -23)
*2019—Sung Kang -23 (over Scott Piercy -21)
*Note: Tournaments played between ‘16 to ‘19 were played at different venues than TPC Craig Ranch.
**TPC Craig Ranch changed to a par 71.
Winning Trends
– 10 of the last 11 winners of the Byron Nelson had already recorded a T10 or better on the PGA TOUR in the same year of their victory—prior to winning at the Byron Nelson.
– Six of the last seven winners of the Byron Nelson played the week prior (three of those winners missed the cut at their previous start).
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Taylor Pendrith—2024 (23-under-par; at TPC Craig Ranch)
2024 lead-in form (T11-T11-MC-T36-MC)
SG: OTT — +4.0
SG: APP — +0.6
SG: TTG — +8.7
SG: ATG — +4.1
SG: PUTT — +3.7
- KH Lee didn’t come in with sparkling form in either of the past two seasons, but he was starting to show signs of a breakout before his win with better iron play — he also made the cut and had good approach stats at the Wells Fargo prior to each win.
- This was similar to Pendrith in 2024, who put up a couple of solid finishes in a row before coming in and grabbing his first win.
- Day also had some good ball-striking weeks right before he won the Byron in 2023, and had posted multiple top 10 finishes on the season, despite missing the cut the week prior.
- In 2022, Lee gained most of his strokes on the field through his approach game and also excelled on the par 4s at TPC Craig Ranch, where he was ranked second in efficiency for the week in 2021 (TPC Craig Ranch has six par 4s over 450 yards).
- In both seasons, Lee wasn’t anywhere near the top in fairways gained or strokes gained off-the-tee stats, but he was near the lead in GIR%. Lee also led the field in proximity from 150-175 yards and was top-five from 175-200 yards as well in 2021.
- Day was somewhat similar in 2023. He gained over 6.4 strokes on approach last season and excelled from 175-200 in total proximity stats.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Jacob Bridgeman +5000 and $8,500
Comparables:
- Tom Kim +5500 and $8,700
- Ryan Gerard +6000 and $8,600
Taylor Moore +6000 and $7,500
Comparables:
- Nicolai Hojgaard +6000 and $8,200
- Thorbjorn Olesen +6500 and $7,800
- Ryo Hisatune +6500 and $8,300
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($13,300; 8th-T4-T2): Scheffler may be in a bit of a slump (for him), but he’s still playing high-level golf. Three top 10 finishes in a row, plus a T4 at the Masters, has him on the right track. He’s gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in his last four starts, so it’s only a matter of time before it all comes together.
2. Sami Valimaki ($7,300; T18-T12): The Finn has made six straight cuts and posted top-20 finishes in three straight events (not counting last week’s team event). He should set up well for this course, as his iron play has carried him this season, and he won’t be as disadvantaged by tighter fairways off the tee (where he can sometimes get wild).
3. Mackenzie Hughes ($9,100; T3-T10): The Canadian has played some very solid golf of late, posting a T3 at Hilton Head and a T10 in Houston. He’s gained everywhere in three straight events and does have solid spike putting upside.
4. Ryan Gerard ($8,600; T27-T2): The American has been consistent most of the season and recently had a monster week in San Antonio, where he finished 2nd and gained over 7.6 strokes on the greens. He’s already had two top 10s in Texas this season and will gun for a third this week at Craig Ranch, where he missed the cut last year.
5. Eric Cole ($8,100; T18-T26-T15): Cole has started to turn things around after a slow start. He’s gained strokes on approach in four straight events and has top 20 finishes in three of his last four starts. He did finish T23 at this event last year, but his recent hot run has also seen his DFS price creep up as well.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Knapp and Valimaki solid salary savers
It’s a tough call at the top this week where your choices are a very expensive Scottie Scheffler ($13,300) or a harder trust Jordan Spieth ($10,500). I don’t have an issue with starting with Spieth this week, but whichever way you lean, I do like the idea of using both Jake Knapp ($8,500) and/or Sami Valimaki ($7,300) in core lineups. Knapp is coming off a solid week in New Orleans and finished T8 at this venue last season. His approaches and the softer venue set up very well for a player who also has proven spike putting upside. Valimaki has been hitting his approaches as good as anyone this season and has much the same skillset and form as Knapp, but at far less of a price.
Tournaments: Tom Kim a wildcard
At $8,700 in this weak a field, there is no doubt that Tom Kim has some large field appeal for DFS tournaments. The South Korean has not played well of late and has been losing on approach almost every week. That said, he’s a player capable of turning things around in an instant and likes these lower-scoring venues where there are chances for a birdie on almost every hole. He’s unlikely to be very highly owned, even with his affordable salary. Below him, Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,200) has appeal for much of the same reasons and is coming off a decent week at the Zurich, where he and his twin brother finished second. Further down, I also like Doug Ghim ($7,300) to potentially bounce back on a very suitable course for someone with high-end approaches from long distance. Other GPP targets include David Lipsky ($6,300), Luke List ($6,500), and Danny Walker ($6,600).
MY PICK: Ryo Hisatsune ($8,300)
Hisatsune is starting to look like a player we need to take note of every week on the PGA. The Japanese pro is in his second full season on the PGA but has already carved out some solid results. He landed top-five finishes at the Valspar and Valero earlier this season and is coming off a strong Zurich Classic, where he and partner Takumi Kanaya finished T18 (and were in contention until late Sunday).
Hisatsune may not be well known, but the 22-year-old has already proven himself against tougher fields, winning in 2023 as a rookie on the European Tour at the very tough Le Golf National in France, where he bested a field of proven European pros for his first big pro win. He also finished third last season at another lower-scoring event in the Wyndham Championship and was a solid T13 at this venue last season (his first time playing the course).
He comes in this week having gained strokes on approach in five straight starts and ranks out 19th in overall proximity, and 20th from >200 yards (a popular approach range at Craig Ranch thanks to both the three shorter par 5s and the longer par 4s). At $8,300, he looks like a solid upside play in GPPs, and a potentially lower-owned play for big field GPPs given some of the names around him in price will likely be very popular.
For betting, he still has big odds in the outright market where he makes sense as a longshot play at +6500 and as a top 10 bet at +500 (with ties).
MY SLEEPER: Henrik Norlander ($7,100)
Norlander comes in with some solid momentum this week. He leads the field in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds and was a solid T4 last week in New Orleans with partner Luke List. While he’s not huge off the tee, the Swede’s long iron play should set him up well for this venue, much like it did for a past x2 winner in KH Lee (who also lacks distance but made up the difference on this course with approach and putting).
Norlander ranks 12th in proximity from 175-200 yards and 4th from 150-175 yards, two of the more popular approach yardage ranges for this week, over the last 24 rounds. He’s also putted well of late, including his last start in Texas, where he gained over 4.0 strokes on the greens at the Valero.
I’m not sure if the Swede will ever find a win on the PGA, but if he does, this is the exact sort of spot you’d expect it to happen, one where we have a few top players in attendance and a wide-open course. For DFS purposes, I don’t think there is any issue with using him at these price levels, given how well he’s played of late, and for betting, I’d feel good about laddering him through Top 10 (+850)/Top 20 (+360) positions on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Given some of the longshot winners we have seen at this venue, I also think a small play on his outright number at +10000 has some merit as well.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
