All three games are in the Eastern Conference side of the bracket. East Coast bias!!! I kid, I kid. The Thunder, Timberwolves and Nuggets all took care of business in their respective series already. CLE/ORL are tied at 2-2 with the series moving back to Cleveland tonight. IND and NYK can close things out and move to the next round if they win tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) and Damian Lillard ($9,300) are doubtful. Joel Embiid ($10,900) and Tyrese Haliburton ($8,700) are questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has NYK -4.5 over PHI at home. The total is 202.5. CLE is -5 over ORL at home with the total at 201.5. IND is -4 over MIL on the road. The total is 216. During the regular season, NYK was 27-14 at home while PHI was 22-19 on the road. CLE was 26-15 at home while ORL was 18-23 on the road. IND was 21-20 on the road while MIL was 31-11 at home. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers ($9,500) – Brunson. MSG. Elimination game. Please and thank you. Brunson has garnered at least a 35 percent usage rate in every game this series, with two of those over 40. He’s also played 41, 38, 46 and 44 minutes. As long as the game is relatively close, Thibs is going to the dial to his Brunson burner cranked all the way to the right. Brunson won’t contribute much in the defensive stats, but he’s attempted at least 20 shots in every game and went for 47 points/10 assists and 39 points/13 assists in the last two contests. Those were good for 62 and 71 DKFP.
Other Options – Tyrese Maxey ($8,400)
Value
Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks ($4,700) – After playing 30 minutes and putting up 11 DKFP in the opener, Nembhard produced 30, 29.25 and 33.75 DKFP in 32, 40 and 38 minutes. The usage rate has been 12.2, 13.6 and 21 percent, so he’s more of a connector piece. Like Brunson, he won’t contribute much in the defensive categories, but Nembhard will hit the open J and make the right read and pass when it’s presented. This game has the highest total on the slate and the game will be more up-and-down than the other two.
Other Options – Kyle Lowry ($4,800), Malik Beasley ($4,600) if Lillard is out, TJ McConnell ($4,200) if Haliburton is out
Forward
Stud
Josh Hart, New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers ($7,500) – I’m probably not paying up at forward tonight, but I’d likely go with Hart if I do. Hart isn’t sexy and the usage rate will often be in the teens. That said, he’s one of the best rebounders for his size/position and contributes in every category. Most importantly, though, is that he’s going to play a ton of minutes, and minutes are half the battle, Yo, Joe! He’s played at least 42 minutes in every game this series, with one game going 48! In the four games so far, Hart has produced 45.75, 54.75, 40.5 and 36.25 DKFP.
Other Options – Pascal Siakam ($8,600), Khris Middleton ($8,500), Franz Wagner ($7,100)
Value
OG Anunoby, New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers ($5,600) – Like Hart above, Anunoby will have a usage rate in the teens. It’s all about Brunson! Like Hart, Anunoby is going to play a ton of minutes. Maybe not as many as Hart, but he did receive 47 in Game 4. In the three other games, Anunoby played 32, 37 and 40 minutes. The trend is our friend! Anonoby has more defensive chops than Hart but isn’t as consistent on the boards as Hart, so the probabilities of Anunoby hitting a ceiling outcome are lowered, but so is the price.
Other Options – Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,300), Aaron Nesmith ($5,200)
Center
Stud
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks ($7,200) – Turner has been a beast at both ends of the court this series. He’s racked up three steals and six blocks, with two games with three blocks. He’s grabbed at least seven rebounds in every game and has shown some playmaking chops, dishing out six and four dimes in two games. It’s been on the offensive end where he’s been most impressive, though. With Brook Lopez more of a drop coverage defender, and the Pacers ability to space out the floor, Turner has gotten a ton of good looks. He’s attempted 17, 15, 21 and 17 shots, with nine, six, 10 and nine from beyond the arc. He’s made it rain with three, three, four and seven treys. He’s gone for 55.75, 45.75, 47.25 and 35 DKFP this series. I don’t see the adjustment that Doc can make to neutralize Turner.
Other Options – Joel Embiid ($10,900), Bobby Portis ($7,600), Jarrett Allen ($7,000), Brook Lopez ($6,200)
Value
Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,400) – I do not like the value at center. If I had to choose one, it would be Isaac. He did put up 32.25 DKFP in 20 minutes last game, but that contest was a blowout and he went for 15 and 12 DKFP in the prior two games while playing 16 and 20 minutes. Isaac is unique because he can make it rain from downtown while being able to guard one through five. Unfortunately, the big lineup of Mobley/Allen has forced Orlando to put more size out there. The range of outcomes is wide but there is access to ceiling as he’s gone over 30 DKFP twice in this series.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
