We have three games tonight, but all with different circumstances. OKC has dominated all series and is looking for the sweep. DEN came back in all three games, but couldn’t make it four in a row. Now they are looking to close things out at home. MIA got the split in BOS, which was cute, but BOS has dominated in the other two contests. They are looking to put a stranglehold on the series. Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson are out. Jamal Murray ($8,200) is questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BOS -10.5 over MIA in Miami. The total is 203.5. OKC is -5 over the Pelicans in New Orleans. The total is 207. DEN is -7.5 over LAL at home. The total is 217. During the regular season, BOS was 27-14 on the road while MIA was 22-19 at home. OKC was 24-17 on the road while NOP was 21-19 at home. DEN was 33-8 at home while LAL was 19-21 on the road. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans ($7,100) – I like the price for the expected usage. So far in this series, Williams has garnered a usage rate of 28.3, 29 and 29.2 percent. He’s gone for 36.25, 39.25 and 43.75 DKFP. Shai is the obvious alpha for OKC, but Williams isn’t just a spandex-wearing sidekick. He’s in there battling and contributing a little something in every category. The last two games have been blowouts, which has shaved around five minutes of playing time. In the opener, Williams played 40. I’d expect the Pelicans to make this a competitive affair at home, which could mean 40 minutes with a 29 percent usage rate. Yummy. If it is another blowout, we have a good idea of what the floor will be, which is pretty, pretty good.
Other Options – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,000), Jaylen Brown ($7,500), CJ McCollum ($7,300), D’Angelo Russell ($6,100)
Value
Delon Wright, Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics ($4,000) – Wright didn’t play in Game 3 due to the birth of his child. In Game 1, he played 26 minutes, garnered a 19.4 percent usage rate and contributed 29.25 DKFP. In Game 2, he only received 20 minutes, had a 9.3 percent usage rate and produced 12 DKFP. The range of outcomes is wide and a ceiling outcome is unlikely. That said, he’s at home and his defense should get him on the floor. For how long and what he does with it is the million dollar question. The price isn’t Tony the Tiger grrrreeeeeaaaatttt, but it’s palatable on a slate starved for value.
Other Options – Derrick White ($5,900)
Forward
Stud
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers ($6,600) – MPJ isn’t going to dish out dimes, but at 6-foot-10, he’s able to shoot over most defenders and pluck rebounds before they descend into the atmosphere. The stroke is silky and he’s a career 41 percent shooter from downtown. In this series, he’s gone 15-for-34. He’s grabbed eight, nine, 10 and 11 boards while racking up a total of six steals/blocks. He’s put up 36.5, 41.75, 38.5 and 46.75 DKFP so far. With so much attention needed for Jokic and Murray, MPJ is able to get open looks on the perimeter and cut to open spaces in the lane, either for easy buckets or rebounds.
Other Options – LeBron James ($9,500), Jayson Tatum ($9,100), Jaylen Brown ($7,500), Jalen Williams ($7,100), Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000)
Value
Lugentz Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans ($4,400) – Dort is a low-usage player who is primarily out there for his rugged defense. The floor is relatively high since he’s going to be out on the court a ton. So far in this series, he’s played 35, 31 and 40 minutes. That only translated to 13.5, 22.75 and 23 DKFP but Dort always has these random 40-DKFP games in which he turns into Stephen Curry. There are high-priced players I’d like to fit in, so the playing time, floor, potential upside and cost have me going in this direction. I have just clicked on my One Direction playlist to manifest it into the universe.
Other Options – Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,400), Herbert Jones ($5,200), Nikola Jovic ($4,800), Caleb Martin ($4,500), Taurean Prince ($3,500)
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers ($11,200) – There really isn’t much to write here. Jokic is awesome and amazing. He will likely triple-double and could put up the most raw points on the slate. So far in this series, Jokic has gone for 63.5, 75, 58.25 and 79.5 DKFP. He is the most expensive player on the slate but has the highest projection and floor/ceiling combo. In addition, I was able to fit him in comfortably in lineups. Anthony Davis ($9,700) will likely be higher-owned, but for tonight, I’d rather look for discounts in the lower-priced tiers. That’s just me, though, as AD is definitely a viable path to take.
Other Options – Anthony Davis ($9,700), Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000), Chet Holmgren ($6,900)
Value
Larry Nance Jr., New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Lakers ($4,600) – I’m not crazy about the value at guard and center, so forward is where I will likely be hunting for value. Nance Jr. played 30 minutes last game and put up 36.25 DKFP. It’s a tough matchup for Valanciunas because he often gets played off the floor. That said, there have been a few games this season in which his work on the offensive end and glass outweighed the defensive disadvantages. Nance could play close to 30 minutes or under 15. Even if he gets 30 minutes, there’s no guarantee that he will produce. In a game back in March against these Thunder, he put up 8.5 DKFP in 33 minutes.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
