The regular season has concluded but the NBA DFS season continues at DraftKings. Saturday’s four-game playoff slate starts early at 1 p.m. ET. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS research and make some fantasy basketball picks, as we gear up for a full day of playoff basketball.
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Guard
Studs
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, $8,200 — The game log doesn’t look good. Murray scored 42.25 DKFP in Game 3. That’s fine, but it won’t win NBA DFS tournaments at DraftKings. His 50 DKFP in Game 1 was solid, but a little more is needed at his price. Murray is capable of much more. He’s averaging 40 minutes and 23 FGA per game in this series. The volume is a steal. The efficiency is not. If Murray’s shots start to fall, he’ll post one of the highest scores on the four-game slate at DraftKings.
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics, $8,100 — Wednesday’s NBA DFS slate was headlined by Herro’s 56.25 DKFP. It’s the playoffs, so the use of the word hero and bad jokes are acceptable. Herro heroically evened the series. He put on the cape, hit six threes and dished 14 assists. The Celtics’ defense could lock him down in Game 3. Any defense in any game on this slate can lock down any star. Why worry about it? Herro is hot, plays a lot and shoots a lot. That’s the NBA DFS formula.
Value
Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, $3,500 — This is too cute. There’s the warning. Guard value is scarce. Paying up at the position appears to be the play on Saturday’s NBA DFS slate at DraftKings. How does this pick work? The Lakers give up. Denver is up 3-0. This series is over. The Nuggets blow out the Lakers and the second units play. This is not a cash game strategy, but it could work in tournaments on a four-game slate.
Forward
Studs
Lebron James, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets, $9,500 — Does pride matter? Does LeBron want to go out like this? There’s no shame in getting swept by the defending champs. The shame is that the Lakers were close. It doesn’t take mental gymnastics to envision a series where the Lakers are up 3-0 in theis series. James and the Lakers could quit on Saturday. Or they could take it one game at a time. One big game at a time. James has to give everything he’s got on Saturday.
Value
Moritz Wagner, Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, $3,900 — How many minutes will Mo get? Jonathan Isaac was starting in the Magic frontcourt. Wagner was filling Isaac’s second-unit frontcourt role. Mo’s matchup was softer. Was is the keyword. The Magic mixed up their frontcourt rotation in Game 3 and won. That win had little to do with the frontcourt. Mo played 18 minutes, but he didn’t get full blowout run. He was deferential when the game was out of hand. This was an appealing NBA DFS value pick on Thursday. It didn’t hit. The scenario is the exact same on Saturday.
Nikola Jovic, Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics, $4,400 — Last weekend’s DK Network NBA DFS Targets Article predicted that the fickle Miami coach Erik Spoelstra would make Jovic a significant part of the playoff rotation. Jovic’s defense demanded his presence on the court. His Game 1 performance was acceptable. He was the best value pick on the NBA DFS slate for Game 2. Either performance will work on a small slate at DraftKings.
Center
Studs
Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, $7,100 — The Magic did not have an answer for Cleveland’s frontcourt. It didn’t matter who they ran out. Nothing was working. Allen was putting in work. The Magic figured out a workaround on Thursday. Allen can’t get 20 rebounds if the Magic make all of their shots. The Magic couldn’t miss in the second half. A blowout ensued. Allen underwhelmed. When the game was close, Allen was on his way to another monster night. The Magic can’t make every shot every night.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, $11,200 — Nuggets coach Michael Malone had a choice. Denver could limit minutes and run a deeper rotation against the Lakers. This would risk dropping a game or two and extending the series. He chose the other option. The Nuggets are running a tight rotation. They’re going for the sweep and rest. Jokic is playing 40 minutes. That’s hard to fade in NBA DFS. That’s impossible to fade on a four-game slate.
Value
Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, $4,600 — The matchup is tough. Cleveland plays great defense and they’re tall. It’s the playoffs. All of the matchups are tough. Isaac was productive in the first two games of the series as a starter but wasn’t a microwave. Isaac excels against opposing second units. He returned to his regular season role in Game 3 — 15 DKFP in 16 minutes off the bench. C Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,300) got the start and did nothing in the tougher matchup — 8.25 DKFP in 25 minutes. One-game samples are dangerous. Isaac is over a fantasy-point-per-minute producer with the second unit. If he gets minutes, he works on small slates.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $300K Shootaround [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
