We all want to watch the NFL Draft on Thursday night, so MLB was gracious enough to stack the afternoon with baseball and not bother at all with a late slate. Good thinking.
We’ve got eight games and several big name pitchers taking the mound. Let’s dive in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, $10,000 – Generally speaking, I’d avoid paying $10K to use a pitcher starting a game at Great American Ball Park, yet Wheeler isn’t your average pitcher. The RHP has been his usual self to begin 2024, posting a 2.30 ERA and a 2.32 xERA across 31.1 innings of work. Wheeler’s also managed a 30.2% strikeout rate and a 14.9% swinging strike rate in that span — both career-high figures. Then there’s the Reds, who have not been swinging the bats well in recent days. In fact, across the past two weeks, Cincinnati is hitting a putrid .191 with a 77 wRC+. Expect Wheeler to take advantage of a soft matchup.
Value
Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox, $4,000 – It’s odd to say that a rookie pitcher priced at the absolute minimum will be “chalky” on a slate, but that appears to be the case with Woods Richardson on Thursday. Part of his appeal has to do with a successful MLB debut earlier this month — the RHP registered 23.7 DKFP against the Tigers on April 13 — yet most of Woods Richardson’s viability is tied directly to matchup. To put it simply: You can’t go wrong picking on the White Sox. Chicago has been shut out at an alarming rate in 2024 and it owns a league-worst .256 wOBA. At this point, any pitcher with a pulse has to be considered when facing the White Sox.
INFIELD
Stud
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, $5,100 – It would appear that all Bogaerts needed to break out of an early-season slump was a trip to Colorado. The former All-Star had a three-hit day on Wednesday and now has six hits and a home run over his last four starts. Don’t anticipate Dakota Hudson ($5,000) slowing Bogaerts down, either. The veteran sports an ugly 5.34 SIERA in 2024, while opponents have combined for a .407 wOBA off the RHP when pitching at Coors Field.
Stud
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox, $4,100 – Kirilloff is one of a seemingly never-ending pipeline of young left-handed platoon bats in the Twins’ system. Recently, he took over as the team’s leadoff hitter when facing right-handed pitching, which makes some sense, as Kirilloff owns a 134 wRC+ within the split in 2024. Also helping Kirilloff’s viability on Thursday? The presence of Mike Soroka ($5,300). Soroka has struggled against everybody so far this season, yet it’s LHBs that are currently slashing .304/.439/.522 off the Canadian. Yikes.
Value
Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox, $3,800 – It’s sort of been under the radar, but Jeffers has sneakily been one of the best offensive catchers in baseball since the beginning of 2023. In fact, of the 25 backstops with at least 400 plate appearances in that stretch, Jeffers’ 138 wRC+ leads the pack. In a matchup with Soroka and his 6.86 xERA, Jeffers is far too cheap.
Value
Luis Garcia, Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,300 – While I think Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,600) is going to eventually be a stud for the Dodgers, he’s having a couple issues adjusting to MLB hitters. Namely, Yamamoto is surrendering a barrel on 15.8% of opponent batted ball events — the second-highest rate of any qualified pitcher. That doesn’t mean I’m going to suggest stacking Nationals, but there’s certainly a case to be made for Garcia at his modest price tag. Washington’s clean-up hitter is slashing .314/.351/.457 with a 126 wRC+ in 74 plate appearances. He can do some damage.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, $5,500 – It just feels like Alvarez is going to get hot soon, doesn’t it? Few players have been as unlucky as the All-Star so far in 2024, with Alvarez’s expected stats vastly outperforming his real-life production. Heck, the man owns a .465 expected wOBA off of RHPs, yet only has a .191 ISO. That doesn’t compute. Here’s hoping things begin to normalize on Thursday afternoon.
Stud
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, $4,900 – Though Triston McKenzie ($7,700) survived his last outing against the Athletics, I still have some major concerns about the RHP who is pitching through an elbow issue. McKenzie has managed an atrocious 6.81 SIERA through four starts, the direct result of walking way more batters than he’s struck out. McKenzie’s also seen a massive drop in his velocity from recent seasons. It’s all red flags. I expect him to struggle with an above-average Boston lineup. Really, I’d give any LHB a serious look. Duran, Rafael Devers ($5,000), Wilyer Abreu ($3,500) are all great options.
Value
Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox, $3,100 – Let’s finish off our very cost-effective Twins stack with Larnach, who has recently been hitting out of the three-spot in Minnesota’s lineup. It’s a small sample — only 24 plate appearances — but Larnach currently sports a .463 expected wOBA and a 225 wRC+. In layman’s terms, he’s seeing the ball quite well at the moment. Add in Soroka’s documented issues and you’ve got a viable outfielder for just over $3K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
