One of the most anticipated series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs will be the matchup between the No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks and No. 6 Indiana Pacers in the first round. The Bucks made the big move in the offseason to add Damian Lillard to the roster and then made a coaching change to bring on Doc Rivers, so expectations are high. Meanwhile, the Pacers showed they weren’t afraid of the bright lights by going to the In-Season Tournament final behind point guard Tyrese Haliburton. There’s also the question about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status as he deals with a calf strain he suffered at the end of the regular season. Antetokounmpo is expected to miss the start of the series but there’s a belief he can rejoin the team later on.
Here’s an in-depth look at the matchup between the Bucks and Pacers, along with our prediction for the series. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions
Odds to win series: Bucks -110, Pacers -110
Regular season record: Bucks 49-33, Pacers 47-35
Head-to-head record: Pacers 4-1
Indiana got the better of Milwaukee for most of the regular season matchups, all of which featured Antetokounmpo. The Pacers had an extra matchup with the Bucks thanks to the In-Season Tournament knockout round and defeated Milwaukee there too. The Bucks have been fairly inconsistent and typically played down to their opponents, but they did battle some injuries to Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Khris Middleton throughout the season. The latter two are healthy heading into the playoffs. Both teams had a winning record against opponents who were .500 or better, so this was likely to be considered a somewhat even contest even if Antetokounmpo was good to go from Game 1.
Pick: Bucks in 7 games (+300)
Milwaukee played nine games without Antetokounmpo this season, going 4-5. The Bucks have had some inspired performances without their superstar, winning against the Clippers and Suns while only falling to the Celtics by one possession. However, they also got smoked by the Cavaliers, Thunder and Magic without the Greek Freak. This has been a volatile team all season, so those results aren’t too surprising. The good news for Milwaukee is it has had a week to prepare for a few games without Antetokounmpo.
The Pacers got off to an excellent start with the In-Season Tournament but faded for much of the middle of the season. There was an injury to Tyrese Haliburton which didn’t help, but Indiana’s trade for Pascal Siakam does give it more juice in the even the point guard isn’t firing. More importantly, Siakam gives the Pacers playoff experience and has faced Milwaukee in the postseason.
The Bucks won 31 games at home this season, which gives them the edge going into the series even if Antetokounmpo is out. Milwaukee knows it needs to win at least one of the first two games, because it sounds like the Greek Freak could be back by Game 3 or 4. The Bucks have always been sneaky with injury news and will do so again here, so Antetokounmpo could even potentially play in Game 2. I think Milwaukee has done well enough without the star to take at least one of the first two games, which gives the Bucks a chance to tread water until Antetokounmpo returns. The Pacers are a tough group who have one of the best offenses in the league but they aren’t as talented as the Bucks. Give me Milwaukee to win in seven games, provided Antetokounmpo does come back by Game 4.