We’ve got a small, three-game matinee slate on Thursday, but it’s not without intrigue. Jack Leiter ($9,000), the second-overall pick in the 2021 Draft, will be making his MLB debut in Detroit against the Tigers. Is he worthy of being the most-expensive pitcher on the board?
Let’s dive in and break it all down.
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PITCHER
Stud
Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angeles, $8,100 – It’s been an odd beginning to the season for Pepiot. His two starts in Tampa? Awful. His lone road outing at Coors Field? One of the best of any pitcher has had in 2024. Go figure. In general, Pepiot’s underlying metrics suggest he’s thrown the ball much better overall than his 5.40 ERA would indicate. The RHP has struck out 30.8% of the batters he’s faced and currently owns a 3.07 xERA and a 3.16 SIERA. Meanwhile, the Angels rank top-10 in baseball in strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching (23.8%) and sport an underwhelming 98 wRC+ within the split. I think we’ll start to see Pepiot’s surface stats normalize on Thursday.
INFIELD
Stud
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, $5,200 – It has not been an ideal start to the season for Devers in a number of ways. First and foremost, he’s hitting just .188 with a 104 wRC+. Secondly, at least this week, he keeps narrowly avoiding long-term injury. However, he’s healthy and he’s got an amazing matchup on Thursday in the form of Carlos Carrasco ($7,400). As much as it pains to me to say it: I think Carrasco is cooked. The 37-year-old’s fastball velocity is way down in 2024 and he’s allowing a .417 wOBA to opposing LHBs. It might be the end of the road for Cookie.
Stud
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, $4,800 – Casas went hitless on Wednesday, but the hulking first baseman has still managed to club three home runs in his last five games. For his career, Casas owns a .232 ISO and a 130 wRC+ against RHPs in just over 500 plate appearances. He’s got some serious pop and DFS ceiling, especially with Carrasco’s documented struggles in opposite-hand matchups.
Value
Josh Smith, Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, $3,100 – Speaking of aging pitchers with diminished fastball velocity, Kenta Maeda ($7,800) has also looked like a shell of himself so far this season. Through three outings, the 36-year-old has registered a 6.00 ERA and a 6.58 FIP. Maeda’s also surrendered four opponent home runs in just 15.0 innings of work. Smith hasn’t exactly showcased a lot of power to this point in 2024, yet he does sport a 147 wRC+ in his 55 plate appearances. He’s got a hit in each of his last eight starts, too.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, $5,700 – Garcia has picked up right where he left off in last year’s playoffs. In his 78 plate appearances in 2024, the All-Star is slashing .304/.359/.536 with a 153 wRC+. Specific to his matchup with the aforementioned Maeda, it might actually be beneficial that Garcia is right-handed. Maeda’s primary offering is his change-up and, as is often the case, that’s led to some reverse-splits for the RHP. Righties are currently managing a massive .692 slugging percentage off the veteran.
Stud
Richie Palacios, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels, $4,100 – The Rays are missing a number of left-handed bats at the moment, which is why Palacios is suddenly slotted in as the team’s three-hole hitter against RHPs. To be fair, the 26-year-old is also looking pretty good in the box, with a .360 expected wOBA and a 137 wRC+ in his 44 plate appearances this season. It’s a different story for Griffin Canning ($6,800). The Angels’ starter has been rocked by opposing LHBs in 2024, surrendering 3.86 home runs per nine and a gargantuan .738 slugging percentage within the split.
Value
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers, $3,700 – Carpenter is far from a household name, but the Tigers’ primary clean-up man has a career 125 wRC+ at the big league level and some serious pop in his bat. Heck, in 53 plate appearances in 2024, Carpenter is in possession of a .292 ISO and a 166 wRC+. Leiter might come with a lot of prospect pedigree, yet this will still be his first taste of the bigs. I doubt he has a clean outing and Carpenter might be the one to provide a “welcome to the show” moment.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
